RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 4

Thu Oct 1 10:58pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Week 4 brings some great games across the NFL, including the Eagles hosting the Rams. We also have our first London game of the season between the Colts and Commanders. Let’s dig into the DFS options and highlight some of the best players to consider at each position, as well as a few to avoid based on their matchups.

Quarterbacks

Tyler Shough, NO vs. ATL ($5,600): The Saints have been a pass-heavy team, helping Shough throw for 917 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. He has also made an impact with his legs, rushing 14 times for 67 yards and one touchdown. With running back Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) on IR, the Saints could throw even more moving forward. Shough already has 12 completions of at least 20 yards, which is noteworthy for this matchup because the Falcons are tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed of at least 20 yards. At his reasonable salary, Shough makes for a great DFS option again.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI at NYG ($5,000): After the Seahawks shut down Brissett in Week 2, the veteran bounced back to throw for 280 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers last week. With the Cardinals’ defense struggling again, Brissett was forced to attempt 52 passes as their offense tried to keep pace. The Giants just lost their defensive leader in Brian Burns (knee) for the season, and cornerback Paulson Adebo (knee) is also on IR. Given his cheap salary, Brissett might be too good to pass up.

Player to Avoid

Drake Maye, NE at BUF ($6,000): Maye looks nothing like the quarterback who nearly won the MVP last season. His completion percentage has dropped from 72.0% to 63.8%. He has just one touchdown and has been picked off six times. He certainly misses A.J. Brown (ankle), which has contributed to him completing only eight passes of at least 20 yards. Last year, he made 67 such completions. This isn’t a horrible matchup against the Bills, but until Maye shows signs of life, it’s best to avoid him in DFS.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at CAR ($9,000): Going with Shough or Brissett at quarterback helps free up some of your budget to deploy Gibbs at running back. His salary is certainly hefty, but he can still be well worth it. He already has 307 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 156 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In two of his three games, he received at least 20 rushing attempts. The Panthers allow an NFL-high 5.86 yards per carry to running backs, so they will be fighting an uphill battle to slow down Gibbs.

Aaron Jones Sr., MIN vs. MIA ($6,000): With Jordan Mason (thumb) on IR, Jones doesn’t have much competition for work in the Vikings’ backfield. After rushing 23 times for 105 yards in Week 2, he ran 17 times for 58 yards versus the Buccaneers last week. He also hauled in five of his six targets for 34 yards. The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league, and now their offense is even more compromised with De’Von Achane (knee) out. The Vikings might not need to throw much in this matchup, so expect another heavy workload for Jones.

Player to Avoid

Omarion Hampton, LAC at SEA ($6,300): The Bills held Hampton in check last week, limiting him to 56 yards on 15 carries. The second-year back hasn’t been involved much in the passing game, receiving a total of three targets through three games. The Seahawks are a daunting opponent, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. A big reason why is that running backs average just 2.9 yards per carry against them. I’d much rather roll with Jones this week, who has a cheaper salary and a better matchup.

Wide Receivers

Drake London, ATL at NO ($6,500): The return of Michael Penix Jr. last week resulted in a windfall for London, who caught nine of 10 targets for 194 yards. Over the first two weeks without him, London had only six receptions for 80 yards. In what could be a high-scoring game against the Saints, London should again see plenty of targets thrown his way. Combine his 38.6% share of the Falcons’ air yards with a hefty target share, and he stands out among the wide receiver options.

Michael Wilson, ARI at NYG ($5,500): Wilson excelled against the 49ers last week, catching 11 of 17 targets for 89 yards and one touchdown. He has clearly surpassed Marvin Harrison Jr. on Arizona’s depth chart, out-targeting him 31 to 9 for the season. He has also been targeted on 46.3% of his routes run. Wilson and Brissett are an appealing budget-friendly stack this week.

Player to Avoid

Mike Evans, SF vs. DEN ($6,600): The 33-year-old Evans continues to live on the injury report for the 49ers. He left last week’s matchup with the Cardinals because of a rib injury, marking the second time in three games that he couldn’t play until the final whistle. He is viewed as day-to-day heading into Week 4, but even if he is cleared to play, who knows how long he will last. The Broncos are already tied for the fewest receptions allowed to wide receivers in the league, so this might be a week to avoid Evans.

Tight Ends

George Kittle, SF vs. DEN ($5,100): With the 49ers losing wide receivers left and right, they should rely heavily on Kittle. As he works his way back from a torn Achilles, it was encouraging to see him log 46 snaps against the Cardinals last week. He capitalized on his added time on the field, posting six receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns. As good as the Broncos have been against wide receivers, they are tied for the seventh-most receptions allowed to tight ends. With Kittle’s playing-time limitations fading, he should be a top DFS option at tight end again.

Darren Waller, CAR vs. DET ($3,300): The Lions are a team to attack when it comes to tight ends. They are dealing with multiple injuries at safety, putting them in a difficult spot when it comes to defending the position. Through three weeks, they have allowed the most receptions (29), receiving yards (351) and touchdowns (six) to the position. Waller, who already has two touchdowns and has been targeted 11 times over his last two games, could provide value.

Player to Avoid

Oronde Gadsden II, LAC at SEA ($3,600): Gadsden showed flashes of promise last season but was buried on the Chargers’ depth chart to begin this year. However, injuries to Charlie Kolar (forearm) and David Njoku (fibula) put him back into DFS consideration, especially after he scored a touchdown in Week 2. Despite logging a season-high 39 offensive snaps in Week 3, he did not haul in any of his three targets. For those looking to take a chance on a tight end with a cheap salary this week, steer clear of Gadsden, especially with Waller having a cheaper salary and a superior matchup.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 4

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