RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 3

Fri Sep 25 8:53am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Quarterback injuries make for a murky DFS slate for Week 3. We’re also dealing with injuries to some star wide receivers that could further complicate things. Let’s dig into the matchups and highlight some of the top players to consider at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid based on their matchups.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF vs. LAC ($8,000): Allen has extra rest coming into this matchup with the Bills having played on Thursday last week. He has completely dominated on the way to the Bills starting 2-0, posting five passing touchdowns and four rushing scores. Now he’ll face a Chargers defense that gave up three touchdowns to Kirk Cousins last week, despite Brock Bowers (knee) being out. Allen comes with a hefty salary, but it’s difficult to envision the Chargers slowing him down at home.

Geno Smith, NYJ at DET ($4,900): The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league, which means opposing teams often need to throw a lot to keep pace with them. That heavy pass volume contributed to them ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks last season. Through two games this year, they have allowed 658 passing yards and six touchdowns. Smith has weapons with Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell at his side, so he could be worth the risk at his cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Bo Nix, DEN vs. LAR ($5,500): After a disastrous Week 1 performance against the Chiefs, Nix bounced back with 288 passing yards and one touchdown against the Jaguars last week. He has thrown a pick in both games, and he hasn’t exactly been airing it out with his average target depth being 7.4 yards. The Rams only allowed 6.8 yards per pass attempt last season and have improved their secondary this year with the addition of Trent McDuffie. This is not shaping up to be a favorable spot for Nix.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker III, KC at MIA ($7,400): The Dolphins have been a disaster on defense, giving up 62 points over two games. They have allowed five touchdowns to running backs and are tied for the eighth-most rushing attempts against in the league. Walker has 47 carries through two games and is averaging 6.2 yards per rush attempt. Walker is someone to consider building your entire DFS lineup around.

David Montgomery, HOU at IND ($6,000): Montgomery was held in check by the Bengals last week, rushing six times for 10 yards. Cincinnati improved their defensive line with the addition of Dexter Lawrence, so running against them this season likely won’t be as easy. The same can’t be said for the Colts, who have allowed 5.3 yards per carry to running backs through two games. Montgomery had 20 rush attempts against the Bills in Week 1 and scored three touchdowns in the matchup. Expect him to receive more work in this game, leaving him with upside in a favorable matchup.

Player to Avoid

Bucky Irving, TB vs. MIN ($6,300): Irving ran 17 times for 89 yards in the Buccaneers’ disappointing loss to the Browns last week. The concern here is that the Vikings have been successful on the strength of their defense. They have yet to give up a touchdown to a running back, limiting them to 3.43 yards per carry. That’s consistent with last season when they allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry to running backs (3.9). Montgomery has a cheaper salary and a better matchup, so there’s no need to take a chance on Irving this week.

Wide Receivers

Jameson Williams, DET vs. NYJ ($5,400): Williams only has six catches for 78 yards this year. He remains one of the best deep threats in the league, though, accounting for 30.7% of the Lions’ air yards. This is a favorable spot for him to get back on track after the Jets ranked 24th in yards per target allowed to wide receivers last year. They also allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL.

Devaughn Vele, NO vs. LV ($4,400): In the Saints’ upset win over the Ravens last week, Vele posted five receptions for 64 yards. He was targeted seven times in the matchup and has a 19.0% target share through two weeks. The Saints’ defense has played poorly, forcing their offense to attempt the second-most passes in the league. Kirk Cousins has six touchdowns already, so this has the potential to be another high-scoring matchup in which Vele could provide value.

Player to Avoid

Malik Nabers, NYG vs. TEN ($6,500): The Giants received crushing news that Jaxson Dart (knee) will miss the remainder of the regular season. They will now turn things over to Jameis Winston, who was inaccurate while coming on for Dart last week against the Rams. This is a more favorable matchup against the Titans and Winston will have had a full week of practice with the starters, but it still might be better to take a wait-and-see approach with Nabers in Winston’s first start. Nabers also suffered a shoulder injury against the Rams, although he did return to the game and is expected to play in Week 3.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz, HOU at IND ($4,200): Nico Collins (hamstring) sat out against the Bengals last week, so C.J. Stroud relied heavily on Schultz. The veteran tight end was targeted 14 times, which he turned into 12 receptions for 140 yards. If Collins is out again versus the Colts, then Schultz could again receive 10+ targets. Even when Collins played in Week 1, Schultz was targeted eight times. The Colts just gave up nine receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce last week, so Schultz stands out as one of the top tight ends to consider.

Kenyon Sadiq, NYJ at DET ($3,500): After being selected in the first round of the draft, Sadiq only has five receptions for 38 yards this year. His time on the field has been limited, but that could change moving forward with Mason Taylor (thumb) being considered as week-to-week. The Lions have been destroyed by tight ends, allowing 16 receptions for 187 yards and four touchdowns to the position already. Smith and Sadiq have low salaries and increased upside based on this matchup, making them an intriguing stack in tournaments.

Player to Avoid

Colston Loveland, CHI vs. PHI ($5,000): There may be no player more disappointing in fantasy this season than Loveland, who was expected to be one of the top tight ends. In two games, he has one reception for three yards. As if that wasn’t bad enough, now the Bears are dealing with concerns at quarterback with Caleb Williams (hamstring) out and Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol. That’s not a recipe for Loveland to break out of his slump.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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