Lineup Prep: Week 18

Wed Dec 31 12:19pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Dart setup for big Week 18

For most of you, the fantasy season is over. But there are some of you playing another week, so we will continue to try to help those of you still chugging along. Just beware. It is tough this last week trying to figure out players that will continue to play or have a big role Week 18. This is why so many leagues ended last week. We will do our best to get you ready, though.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I know this is a year that Josh Allen finishes first overall in fantasy quarterback scoring, but I have a feeling many of the championship teams waited on a quarterback in drafts this year. There are going to be a lot of winning teams that took Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence. If you used early draft capital to get Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, you likely didn’t win your league this year. It doesn’t always play out this way but seeing so many of those mid to later round quarterbacks have big seasons will likely shift some draft strategies next year.

I am totally stealing this from something I saw on X but not sure where I found it, so I apologize for not attributing it. But the disparity between Trey McBride and all the other tight ends is bonkers. McBride finishes with 302.4 points compared to 199 for the second-place finisher, Kyle Pitts. To put that in perspective, Pitts was closer to the 27th-place finisher at tight end, Cade Otton, than McBride. Haha. That is just nuts. McBride is going to be a first-round pick next year in drafts and for good reason. He was definitely a league winner in 2025.

I think last week was a good example of why you don’t want to take huge swings the last week of the season. There were a lot of owners that started Taysom Hill after his usage the previous week. He ended up a huge bust, though, scoring no points on three touches. It was a big risk, something I just don’t advise at this time of the year. I might feel better about it during the regular season, but going with a guy in the championship that had done next to nothing all year was just not something I was comfortable with. Just something to keep in mind going forward.

I can’t remember a season so wide open when it comes to predicting the Super Bowl. I think all three NFC West teams could represent the NFC. I still don’t think you can count out the Eagles, though. They can get hot and make a run. You also have the upstart Bears that showed me a lot last week in their epic game with the 49ers. I really don’t have a great feel for the team to come out of the NFC. It should be a great playoffs.

And over in the AFC, the Chiefs are finally giving someone else a shot. Is this the year the Bills get over the hump? It is certainly possible but you have to wonder about that defense. The Broncos are having a great season but been involved in so many close games against all types of opponents. I still can’t figure out how good they are. The Patriots might be the best overall team right now in the AFC, but certainly have question marks after being out of the playoffs the last several seasons. And you can’t discount the AFC South, having both the Jaguars and Texans making noise. I like the Texans a little better because of that suffocating defense. Houston could be a tough out because of that.

So as you can see, these playoffs are setup to be really good. Let’s hope it plays out that way. I know I’m looking forward to them this year. It could be epic!

HOT PLAYS

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams hasn’t been quite as prolific this season with the emergence of Blake Corum, who is stealing some of his work. Corum is banged up, though, and might miss the game this week. That would be a big positive for Williams, who has a very favorable matchup against a bad Cardinals rush defense. Williams scored 17.7 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 14. Arizona allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Williams could be a smash play in this one.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall had one of his best games of the season last week, rushing for 111 yards. He scored 20.9 fantasy points, topping 20 points for the first time since Week 8. He hasn’t had near the season fantasy teams hoped but still produced solid numbers at times in an offense that has been a mess. We like him to continue his solid play this week against the Bills. Buffalo can’t stop the run and allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs.

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers has produced his best football lately, having 13-plus fantasy points four straight games. He has two 20-plus point games during that stretch. Flowers is about a must-start right now, especially this week against the Steelers in their must-win game. Flower had eight receptions for 124 yards on 11 targets against the Steelers in Week 14. Pittsburgh allows the ninth most fantasy points to receivers.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants. Dart rebounded last week after having his worst game of the season Week 16. He scored 27.15 fantasy points last week, giving him 25-plus points two of three games. He has produced some big games this season and seems poised to be a top fantasy player for years to come. Look for him to finish his season on a high note, playing the Cowboys. Dallas has been awful stopping the pass all season and allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith continues to be all over the map for fantasy teams. He has less than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He does have seven games with double-digit fantasy points, though. Smith hit double-digit points against the Commanders in Week 16, his opponent this week. Washington allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers. Smith seems setup for one of his good games in Week 18.

COLD PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans. Pollard has played much better down the stretch, having double-digit fantasy points four straight games. He has at least 85-rushing yards all four of those games. But the last time he didn’t reach that mark was against the team he is playing this week, the Jaguars. He ran for 60 yards and scored just 6.3 fantasy points in Week 13. Jacksonville allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Jaguars have allowed more than 100-rushing yards just five times all year.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders. Samuel is another one of those erratic fantasy performers this season. He has been more bad than good lately, having few than eight fantasy points three of four games. Samuel gets the Eagles this week, a team he had three receptions for 35 yards on four targets against in Week 16. Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 150-passing yards four of five games. The Eagles allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Jordan Love, QB, Packers. Love seems likely to return from his concussion this week but that doesn’t mean he should go in your lineup. Love is having a fine season but has been up and down all year. He has less than 20 fantasy points five of his last seven games that he has started and finished. He plays a Vikings team this week that held him to just 8.45 fantasy points in Week 12. Minnesota allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks. Charbonnet had his best game of the season last week, rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns. But before that, he has fewer than 55-rushing yards six straight games. He remains a hard player to trust, splitting work with Kenneth Walker at running back. We would not surprise if he reverted back to his mediocre play this week against the 49ers. He ran 12 times for 47 yards against the 49ers earlier this year. San Francisco has played better against the run than the pass in recent weeks, so look for the Seahawks to exploit that weakness offensively.

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins has seven receptions for 112 yards his last two games since returning from a concussion. He has been pretty ho-hum the last few weeks. It would not surprise to see him have another ho-hum game this week against the Browns. Higgins had three receptions for 33 yards on four targets against the Browns earlier this season. Cleveland can clamp down on the pass, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots. You don’t have to like Stevenson continuing to play a role in the Patriots offense, taking carries from TreVeyon Henderson, but you can’t ignore it. Stevenson has double-digit fantasy points four straight games. Stevenson scored a season-best 27.2 fantasy points last week on just 13 touches. He can reach double-digit fantasy points again this week against the Dolphins, a team that allows the 10th most fantasy points to running backs. Stevenson scored his second-highest fantasy point total against the Dolphins in Week 2, finishing with 21.2 fantasy points.

Parker Washington, WR, Jaguars. Washington is sixth overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He is getting a ton of looks right now in the Jaguars passing game. He has 10 targets each of his last two games and reached the 100-yard mark each of those games. Washington will be worth using against this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and has allowed 290-plus passing yards three of four games.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons. Cousins scored just 10.4 fantasy points last week but played a good game in the Falcons upset win over the Rams. Cousins has played well lately, having 21-plus fantasy points two of three games. He is showing he still has a little something left in the tank. We like him for another solid game against the Saints in Week 18. New Orleans is middle of the pack against the pass and this game could be high scoring with two offenses playing very well right now.

Malik Davis, RB, Cowboys. Davis seems likely to get the start this week with Javonte Williams banged up. Davis is coming off his first 100-yard game, running very well in relief of Williams last week. If he can get a big workload against the Giants this week, look for big things from Davis. The Giants allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and gave up 135-rushing yards to the Cowboys in Week 2.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Texans. Higgins had just two receptions but finished with 88 yards and a touchdown. He has been up and down his rookie season but has five games with double-digit fantasy points. Higgins had one of his double-digit games against his opponent this week, the Colts, in Week 13. Indy is all beat up in the secondary and allows the second-most fantasy points to receivers. Higgins might be worth taking a chance on in this one.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cowboys/Giants, Cardinals/Rams, Dolphins/Patriots.

Low Scoring Games: Colts/Texans, Packers/Vikings, Chargers/Broncos, Chiefs/Raiders.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 18

The Paur Report