Lineup Prep: Week 13

Wed Nov 26 9:42am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Wilson has become a must start

This is always my favorite column of the year. It is time for my annual Thanksgiving Day Lineup Prep. For my lead in this column, I am going to give you all the things I’m thankful for. . . . .fantasy edition.

So without further ado. . . . .

First off, I’m thankful for the opportunity to work here at RealTime Fantasy Sports. If you can believe it, this year was my 20th at RTSports. I am so fortunate to work at such a great place with great people. I thank my lucky stars every day for the opportunity to work here. It isn’t often you find a job that you never get tired of and have an absolute passion for. I don’t take it for granted and never will.

I’m thankful for all advanced statistics that are so easily available now. You can find snap percentage, ADOT, broken tackles, throwing under pressure, or pretty much anything in a matter of minutes. All this info makes coming up with rankings, projections and material for my columns so much easier. This kind of info was not available when I started in this business 25-plus years ago. It is crazy how much things have changed.

I’m thankful for fantasy second chances. It is great to see so many players finally having the light turn on when they move on to new teams. These fantasy players usually end up being bargains the year of their breakout seasons. Some examples from this year and past years include Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Javonte Williams. I love to see a player prove the doubters wrong and come back with a vengeance after a tough start.

I’m thankful that is nothing certain when it comes to the fantasy season. If it was, this game would be so much easier. This is what makes it so fun. . . .and frustrating. You might have the best player and matchup in the world, but that doesn’t always lead to fantasy success. If it were that easy, none of us would ever lose. You just have to do your best on a weekly basis, going with the guys you think will produce and win you games.

I’m thankful for elite fantasy tight ends that you can count on. There aren’t many but guys like Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and George Kittle sure are a luxury to have because the rest of the guys are so volatile. You just don’t know what you are going to get from most of the tight end position on a weekly basis. It is such a frustrating position that getting one of these superior fantasy players on your team seems like a huge advantage this year. Just keep that in mind come draft day.

I’m thankful for rookies. Is there anything better than when a rookie hits in fantasy? They are just so fun and every year we get a handful of rookies that hit immediately. And if you hit on one of those players, you are feeling pretty dang good about yourself. Plus, these rookies end up being impactful fantasy players for years to come, giving us fantasy owners more and more options to choose from.

I’m thankful for the red zone channel. It doesn’t get much better than red zone. You can watch all the integral parts of games all on one channel. I just want to thank the genius that came up with this idea. Holy cow. It sure makes my life easier, getting to keep up with a host of games all at the same time. Plus, host Scott Hanson is the best.

I’m thankful for you, the reader. I wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for all of you taking the time to read my columns, watch my videos, listen to me on the radio or ask me questions on Twitter. I truly can’t thank you all enough for being the best community in fantasy sports. There isn’t any other site that has a community of owners like RTSports. We are so thankful to have you all here in our journey.

News and Notes: The Saints signed kicker Cade York and released kicker Blake Grupe in a corresponding move on Tuesday. York is expected to take over the kicking duties for the Saints. . . . .Buffalo signed receiver Brandin Cooks on Tuesday. He was just released by the Saints and will look to earn some playing time with his new team.

HOT PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix hasn’t been nearly as consistent as you would like this year. He has two straight games with fewer than 16 fantasy points. But for the season, he has 20-plus points six of 11 games. He is always capable of that huge game in this offense. But for now, he might be more of a spot play because of his erratic numbers. We think Week 13 is a spot to play him, though. He is coming out of a bye and gets a reeling Commanders team. Washington allows the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Commanders have given up 300-plus passing yards two of three games.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots. There were concerns about Henderson’s playing time with the return of Rhamondre Stevenson. But you should not worry too much going forward. Henderson was the clear lead back over Stevenson, playing 65 percent of the snaps. The only concern was he didn’t get all the goal-line work. Either way, Henderson still has a ton of fantasy value as the starter in this offense. Henderson could do some real damage this week against a bad Giants rush defense. New York gave up 237-rushing yards last week and more than 150-rush yards four of five games.

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens. Andrews had just a catch last week on three targets. But he did have double-digit fantasy points three straight games before last week. He can still get it done and be a solid No. 1 tight end for fantasy teams. Andrews might be a must-start this week against the Bengals. Fantasy tight ends have absolutely torched the Bengals defense this year. Cincinnati allows the most fantasy points to tight ends, giving up more than 20 per game.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall was held in check rushing last week but still managed to score 14.9 fantasy points. He got it done in the passing game to make up for low rushing numbers. The addition of Tyrod Taylor to the starting lineup is a positive for the entire Jets offense, getting a guy that does a better job of making plays in the passing game. This should help Hall’s numbers as a receiver, giving him a good weekly floor. We think he can get it done as a rusher this week, though, against the Falcons. Atlanta is better against the pass than run. The Falcons allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and gave up more than 300-rushing yards in a game three weeks back.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals. There is talk in Arizona that even when Marvin Harrison returns, which could be this week, Wilson will remain the No. 1 receiver for the Cardinals. He is on an absolute heater. Wilson is third overall in receiver scoring his last three games. He has 25 receptions on 33 targets his last three games. Wilson is a must-start right now. He gets the Bucs in Week 13, a team that allows the 10th most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys. Williams is having a great first season for the Cowboys. He is eighth overall in fantasy running back scoring. He is starting to cool a little, though. He is just 28th in scoring his last three games. Williams has been held out of the end zone and is getting little work in the passing game, which is not great news for his fantasy value. Things could be tough again for him in Week 13 against the Chiefs. Kansas City is stout against the run, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Chiefs have allowed less than 75-rushing yards four of five games.

Daniel Jones, QB, Colts. Jones continues to have his best season as a pro. He has been pretty fantastic all season long. He had 20-plus fantasy points five straight games before last week. He was held to fewer than 200 passing yards in Week 12, though, and scored just 18.7 fantasy points. He could have another down game this week against a good Texans defense. Houston allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Texans have not given up more than 200-passing yards since Week 3.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Raiders. Lockett had his first game with double-digit fantasy points last week. He is emerging as the top receiver in this offense after the departure of Jakobi Meyers. He has 12 receptions his last three games. But don’t get too excited. Lockett still plays in a pretty poor offense and his numbers have not been very good most of the year. Don’t get too excited over last week, especially since he plays the Chargers this week. Los Angeles allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers. The Chargers held the Raiders to just 150-passing yards in Week 2.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery is becoming a little hard to trust in his current role. He has played less than 40 percent of the snaps two straight games and three of four. Montgomery is just 41st overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. You might just want to steer clear of him for now, especially this week against the Packers. Green Bay has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards seven of 11 games.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders. Samuel is the top receiver for the Commanders but still isn’t producing huge in that role. He has less than 50-receiving yards three of four games. Samuel can be up and down in this struggling offense. He is likely to have one of his down games this week against a very good Broncos defense. Denver allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers on the season. The Broncos defense could shut down the entire Commanders offense in Week 13.

SLEEPERS

Pat Bryant, WR, Broncos. Bryant has been steadily getting more and more work as the season progresses. He had his best game as a pro his last time out, catching five passes for 82 yards on six targets. Bryant has played more than 55 percent of the snaps three of four games. He might be even more involved coming out of the Broncos bye week. This tends to happen for rookies. Plus, he gets a favorable matchup against a bad Commanders secondary, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs. Hunt is grabbing hold of the Chiefs starting job with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. He had his first 100-yard game of his season last week. Hunt has at least 12 fantasy points four straight games. Hunt is 13th overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. The Cowboys have been better against the run lately but still allow the sixth most fantasy points to running backs. You have to like the chances of Hunt finding the end zone in the possible high-scoring game, leading to another solid fantasy showing.

Cam Ward, QB, Titans. Ward played his best game as a pro last week against a really good Seahawks defense. He had a season-high 26.5 fantasy points, throwing for 256 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. He also ran in a score and had a season-best 37-rushing yards. Ward took a step forward last week. Hopefully, he can build on that for this week’s game against a poor Jaguars pass defense. Jacksonville allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and 270-plus passing yards three of four games.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Steelers. Gainwell is pretty much splitting the work at running back these days with Jaylen Warren. He has played more than 50 percent of the snaps three straight games. Gainwell is 11th overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. He has 18-plus points two straight games. Gainwell is producing big, mostly because of all his work in the passing game. We like him to keep it going this week against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the running back. Buffalo allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson has been a huge bust this year. He has double-digit fantasy points just two games and hasn’t reached that mark since Week 7. Hockenson is more than capable of the big game, though. His track record suggests there is always a chance for big things. The big issue for him has been terrible quarterback play. Well, he gets a new quarterback throwing him passes this week. We aren’t sure if rookie Max Brosmer is better than J.J. McCarthy but it can’t get much worse, right? And rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on the tight end, which bodes well for Hockenson this week. We would not be surprised if he got more works against a Seahawks team that has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Cowboys, Bengals/Ravens, Bills/Steelers.

Low Scoring Games: Falcons/Jets, Saints/Dolphins, 49ers/Browns.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 13

The Paur Report