Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule

Tue May 20 10:57am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Nacua could be difference maker

Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the wide receiver position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the wide receivers with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the wide receivers that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

	WR SOS
1.	Jacksonville	547.38
2.	Denver	550.61
3.	Cleveland	551.4
4.	Dallas	554.94
5.	Baltimore	558.06
6.	Indianapolis	560.39
7.	Los Angeles Chargers	562.82
8.	New England	563.19
9.	Minnesota	563.73
10.	New York Giants	564.74
11.	Buffalo	564.94
12.	Las Vegas	565
13.	Pittsburgh	565.18
14.	Washington	565.49
15.	New Orleans	565.79
16.	Kansas City	567.66
17.	Arizona	567.75
18.	Detroit	567.95
19.	Houston	569.03
20.	Philadelphia	569.34
21.	Tennessee	571.27
22.	Miami	573.88
23.	San Francisco	574.04
24.	Atlanta	574.71
25.	Tampa Bay	574.75
26.	Cincinnati	576.96
27.	Carolina	578.65
28.	Chicago	579.06
29.	Seattle	579.19
30.	Green Bay	580.79
31.	New York Jets	580.93
32.	Los Angeles Rams	581.01

The main thing that stands out from this list is some really big-time fantasy receivers have favorable schedules. The Rams have the easiest schedules for receivers. So Puka Nacua and newly acquired Davante Adams could be setup for huge seasons. Nacua is considered a top-10 fantasy receiver, so you have to like his chances for a monster year. And while some might be a little scared of Adams with a new team and top receiver to compete with for targets, we wouldn’t get too down on him because of that. The Rams have produced huge fantasy receivers in the past when two top options were on the team. Remember, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua had monster seasons together just a few years back.

Some other really big-name receivers with favorable schedules include Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.J. Moore. These guys all have top-five easy schedules for receivers. Wilson is the most intriguing, getting a chance to be the top dog again with Adams gone, And he gets his old college teammate, Justin Fields, throwing him passes. Wilson might have his best season to date.

Smith-Njigba also is very intriguing. He led the Seahawks in receiving last year but now is the clear top option with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett gone. Smith-Njigba could take his game to an even higher level this year, especially if Sam Darnold can be an improvement at quarterback for Seattle.

Lastly, the Bears have a lot of top options at receiver with Moore, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden. These guys could be setup for big seasons in the Bears new offense. New head coach Ben Johnson has produced some huge fantasy receiver seasons with the Lions, so expectations will be high for this group of talented pass catchers with an easy schedule.

On the opposite end of things, the Jaguars have the most challenging schedule for receivers. Brian Thomas was huge his rookie season and should rack up the targets again in the Jaguars new offense. But you have to worry a little about a few more up-and-down games. The Jaguars offense, mainly the passing game, could struggle some weeks with this schedule.

The Broncos have the second most challenging schedule for receivers. Courtland Sutton had his best season in several years last year, which was very encouraging. And Marvin Mims showed some signs of life late last year. But there are some concerns for both guys because of a tough schedule. Plus, neither are big-time options to begin with, so going with them come draft day over a similar player with a more favorable schedule could be a mistake.

The Browns, Cowboys and Ravens round out the top five most challenging receiver schedules. Cleveland stands out from this group because they have all sorts of questions at quarterback. This makes Jerry Jeudy a bit of a risk - even after his best season to date. He might not be worth the risk

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy wide receivers. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 15-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the wide receivers with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big-game contests.

	WR PLAYOFF SOS
1.	Baltimore	515.17
2.	San Francisco	532.83
3.	Houston	536.93
4.	Kansas City	539.57
5.	Jacksonville	542.2
6.	New Orleans	542.37
7.	Philadelphia	546.15
8.	Cleveland	546.47
9.	Chicago	553.87
10.	Green Bay	554.33
11.	Miami	561.83
12.	Las Vegas	564.7
13.	Cincinnati	565.87
14.	Denver	568
15.	Indianapolis	569.95
16.	New York Giants	570.73
17.	Tennessee	571.63
18.	Arizona	571.83
19.	Seattle	572.67
20.	New England	575.17
21.	Atlanta	575.97
22.	Buffalo	576.97
23.	Tampa Bay	579.1
24.	Washington	582.7
25.	Pittsburgh	586.1
26.	Dallas	587.2
27.	Detroit	589.25
28.	Carolina	591.05
29.	Los Angeles Chargers	591.6
30.	New York Jets	598.63
31.	Los Angeles Rams	602.62
32.	Minnesota	607.20

The Rams and Jets are two teams that made both lists for easy receiver schedules. Guys like Nacua, Adams and Wilson are looking even better because of this. We are really high on Wilson this year and seeing the favorable schedules for him makes us even more excited. He really could be a difference maker for fantasy teams.

And a Rams stack in big-game contests might be a good idea. Going with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and pairing him with Nacua at receiver could help produce a long playoff run for fantasy teams. Just something to consider some draft day. And with his current ADP, Stafford can be taken as a fantasy backup in most leagues.

The Vikings actually have the easiest playoff schedule for receivers. There are some concerns with Justin Jefferson this year because he has first-year starter J.J. McCarthy throwing him passes, but if those two can get on the same page, Jefferson could be huge in the fantasy playoffs. He is one of the few receivers capable of finishing first overall in fantasy receiver scoring.

One other team of note with a favorable playoff schedule for receivers is the Chargers. Ladd McConkey emerged as the go-to target for the passing game his rookie year. He is going to be that guy from day one and can improve on an already very good season. He is going to be a hot pick for a lot of fantasy teams, especially with an easy playoff schedule.

Baltimore and Jacksonville are teams in the top five of both lists for tough receiver schedules. The Ravens have a tough overall schedule, but it is hard to count out this offense from producing big on a weekly basis. It is tough to stop Lamar Jackson, so don’t get too concerned over a challenging schedule. Zay Flowers remains a solid target for fantasy owners. He will get plenty of weekly chances.

Now the Jaguars are more of a concern. This passing game could have some struggles along the way, especially if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t take a step forward. Right now, Thomas has an ADP of 13.5, making him a late first or early second-round pick. Is that too high? We’ll see.

The 49ers, Texans and Chiefs also have top-five difficult playoff schedules for receivers. Brandon Aiyuk might not be up to speed to start the year but should be in good shape for the playoffs. A tough schedule makes him even more of a risk, though.

The Texans beefed up at receiver this offseason, adding three talented players to the mix. These guys aren’t really marquee players, though, and could be competing for targets against each other. You might want to just steer clear of them for now. Nico Collins might be the only Texans receiver to roster if you want to make a deep run in the playoffs.

And the Chiefs had all sorts of injuries at receiver last year, but head into this season healthy with a lot of top options for Patrick Mahomes. Much like the Ravens, it is tough to bet against the Chiefs offense no matter the matchup. We wouldn’t get too scared of a tough playoff schedule for this group. Getting guys like Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy could still pay off this year.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule

The Paur Report