Instant Fantasy Analysis
Mon Mar 10 9:35am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Metcalf heads to the Steelers
The NFL does such a good job of staying relevant all season long. Free agency hasn’t even officially opened but the NFL continues to dominate headlines. Teams are agreeing to deals with free agents and trades are happening nearly every day. There is so much to keep up with, but we are here to help. It is time for some instant fantasy analysis of the latest moves from around the league.
Here is the latest. . . . .
The Jaguars traded receiver Christian Kirk to the Texans. This is a great spot for Kirk to land. He could become the go-to possession receiver for Houston. With Tank Dell’s status up in the air for the coming season, Kirk could take his role in the offense. Kirk should pair with Nico Collins to form a solid duo for quarterback C.J. Stroud. With that said, Kirk probably isn’t more than a No. 3 or 4 fantasy receiver. He isn’t likely to post some of his huge numbers from past seasons but should be able to get 70-plus receptions with around 1,000 yards. He should be a good depth piece or spot starter.
Las Vegas found their quarterback for the coming season, trading for Geno Smith. This is a big upgrade for the Raiders offense and their playmakers in the passing game. As for Smith, this probably isn’t a great spot for his fantasy value. He does reunite with his old coach, Pete Carroll, but the weapons in the passing game are lacking a little in Las Vegas, especially if you compare what he had to work with in Seattle. The only positive is the Raiders could be playing from behind, giving Smith more chance to air out. Smith could see his numbers dip a little from his days in Seattle. He is going to be spot start material for fantasy teams.
The Seahawks got their quarterback a few days later, agreeing to a deal with Sam Darnold. This could be a good fit for Darnold and the Seahawks. He isn’t going to post the huge numbers he did with the Vikings explosive offense last year, though. We would consider Darnold more of a spot starter for fantasy teams this year. He should have a few big games but likely be pretty ho-hum most weeks.
Defense end Myles Garrett requested a trade a few weeks back but money apparently talks. The Browns signed Garrett to a massive contract extension, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in league history. Garrett will continue to lead the Browns top defense, which is good news for that fantasy unit.
The Vikings agreed to terms with running back Aaron Jones on a new two-year contract. This keeps Jones in Minnesota for a few more seasons. Jones was 15th overall in fantasy running back scoring this past season and has obvious fantasy value in this offense. He should be considered a top No. 2 fantasy back for the coming year. Injury is always a concern for him, especially at his age, but as long as he is on he field, he should produce good numbers in this offense.
The Rams made a big move for their offense, agreeing to terms with receiver Davante Adams on a two-year contract. Adams will replace Cooper Kupp, who the team is trying to move. Adams should be a healthier version of Kupp and produce some good numbers in this top offense. It wouldn’t surprise to see Adams push 100 receptions this coming season, being a top possession target for Matthew Stafford. Consider Adams a top No. 2 for fantasy teams. And don’t downgrade Puka Nacua because of this move. Nacua remains the top target in this offense and produced big numbers when Kupp was healthy and playing at a high level.
Pittsburgh added another top weapon to their passing game, trading for DK Metcalf. And he is signing a new, five-year contract with the team. It is hard to gauge Metcalf’s fantasy value right now, though, because we don’t know their quarterback. We will have a better idea of his value once that is figured out. For now, Metcalf should be considered a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver in this offense. The Steelers don’t have a great history in recent seasons of producing big fantasy receivers. Metcalf could be a little hit or miss for a team that likes to run the ball.
The Jets agreed to terms with Justin Fields to be their starting quarterback. This is a really intriguing signing for fantasy purposes. Fields might not be the best passer but his rushing totals really boost his fantasy value. As long as he is starting, he has good fantasy value. And he also gets to reunite with former college teammate Garrett Wilson, which could be a plus as well. Overall, Fields in a starring role is a plus for fantasy teams. He has the potential to a be top-10 fantasy quarterback if all goes well for him.
Dalles added Javonte Williams to their running back room. This is an interesting signing. It is thought the Cowboys want to address the running back position in the draft but for now, Williams looks to have the first shot to start. And if starting, he could have his best season to date in Dallas. He could do well in their pass-first offense, getting plenty of chances as a receiver out of the backfield. We’ll know more about this signing after the draft, though.
The Chargers seem to be moving on from JK Dobbins, agreeing to a deal with Najee Harris. This might be a downgrade from Dobbins a little but is a great fantasy spot for Harris. He seems like he could be a perfect fit for the Chargers offense. It would not surprise if he has his best fantasy season to date in this offense.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Vikings drafted Maryland receiver Tai Felton with the final pick of the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Felton was the final pick of the third round, landing with the Minnesota Vikings in the process. He's a thin receiver and a bit of a product of his environment, but he could also be a late bloomer. After being taken on the second day, his stock seems to be on the rise and he should make for a solid mid-round rookie flier as a result.
Dynasty | Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond was not taken on day two of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't exactly shocking considering the fact Bond is under investigation for misconduct. Still, it's notable as his talent is clearly better than that of a third day pick. We'll see what happens tomorrow, but he's looking like a late round flier in rookie drafts at best right now.
Dynasty | Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was not taken on day two of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This is now truly shocking. Sanders was once the favorite to go at #1 overall and he's currently sitting on the board after 102 other players have been taken. Even worse, teams like New Orleans (Tyler Shough), Cleveland (Dillon Gabriel) and Seattle (Jalen Milroe) all took quarterbacks tonight and none of them decided Sanders was worth their selection. The freefall is one unlike we've seen in some time and it's going to take some time to sort out exactly what happened here. Sanders' rookie draft stock is bordering on zero at this point.
The Minnesota Vikings have selected Maryland wide receiver Tai Felton with the 102nd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This selection represented the final pick of the third round and officially marked the end of Day 2. Felton developed into a talented draft prospect over four seasons at Maryland, culminating with a senior campaign in which he caught 96 passes for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns. Minnesota already has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison leading its wide receiver room, so Felton will merely offer valuable depth. He's a solid developmental piece who could ultimately compete with Jalen Nailor and Rondale Moore for the No. 3 receiver role.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Illinois wide receiver Pat Bryant in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: This was about a round or two earlier than expected, so Bryant is likely going to move up into the late third round of rookie drafts as a result. He's a great goal line player and solid athlete, but he's going to need to refine his skills to be more than just a specialist for the Broncos.
Dynasty | The Houston Texans drafted Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It's a very interesting pick as the Texans also took his teammate, Jayden Higgins in the second round. Noel will likely play the slot but it's hard to see immediate production with Higgins, Nico Collins and a soon-to-return Tank Dell in the mix. This has the looks of a pick that's better in reality than fantasy and Noel's draft stock is going to fall a touch after the draft now.
Dynasty | The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Most connected him to Pittsburgh but most also didn't believe he'd make it all the way to the 83rd pick in the NFL Draft. This is a great spot for Johnson, who should form a nice duo with Jaylen Warren next year and slide right into the void left by the departed Najee Harris. Johnson was in our top ten pre-draft and while that may be tough to hold on to, it's still right in the range where he's likely going to be taken based on this landing spot as he really is a prototypical Steeler player with his toughness, grit and motor.
Dynasty | The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It was nearly impossible to think Pittsburgh was going to go through the draft's first two days without addressing both quarterback and running back. Well, quarterback hasn't been in the cards thus far but Johnson will help fill the void left by Najee Harris' departure. It's a big blow to the dynasty prospects of Warren in theory, but few really felt like he was going to be given the backfield all to himself anyway. He'll remain in the RB3 mix now as part of a likely committee for the Steelers.
Dynasty | The Seattle Seahawks drafted Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: It's an intriguing landing spot to say the least. He'll have little chance to challenge the incumbent (and highly paid) Sam Darnold for meaningful snaps next season, but Darnold also has an out in his contract that could make his time in Seattle short. The Seahawks will likely take a year to see if Milroe really does have the ability to refine his passing. If he can, he can be the next Jalen Hurts. If he can't, he's going to have a short career. He'll be a fun late round pick in rookie drafts because of his rushing ability alone.
Dynasty | The Cleveland Browns drafted Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Gabriel landed in a dream scenario being drafted by the Browns in the third round. He'll compete with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco early in his career and while the chance of him starting in week one are remote, the chances of him playing at some point this year seem strong. He's going to move up the draft board after being the fifth quarterback taken with real draft capital being used on him as well.
The Arizona Cardinals have selected Michigan defensive back Will Johnson with the 47th overall pick during Friday's draft. Wow, well this could end up being a steal for the Cardinals as Johnson fell in the draft likely due to injury concerns. Johnson was viewed as a Day 1 prospect, but being limited to seven games last season probably hurt his draft stock. When healthy, Johnson has proven to be an elite zone coverage defensive back with good size and length. He finished his college career with 57 tackles, nine interceptions, and three returned touchdowns. Johnson should be a Day 1 starter and an immediate impact player on defense in Arizona.
From RotoBaller
The Seattle Seahawks have selected Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe with the 92nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Milroe is the only FBS player with 30 plus passing touchdowns and 30 plus rushing touchdowns from 2023-2024. He threw for 5,678 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rushing for 1,257 yards and 32 touchdowns over the last two seasons. The 22-year-old has a cannon for an arm and is an exceptional athlete, but he needs to improve his accuracy as a passer. He will start off the 2025 season as the third-string quarterback behind Sam Darnold and Drew Lock. Milroe is ranked 38th overall as a rookie but is more of a dynasty stash for now as a backup for Seattle.
From RotoBaller
The Packers added another top receiver in the 2025 NFL Draft by selecting Savion Williams in the third round with the 87th overall pick after taking Matthew Golden in Round 1. Williams is a versatile playmaker who had a receiving, rushing, and passing touchdown last year with TCU. He is a solid receiver but also starred as the team's wildcat quarterback at times last year. He ran for six touchdowns and caught six more scores. He lined up in the backfield, out wide, and in the slot. The Packers could utilize him all over the formation in a role similar to Deebo Samuel Sr. or Cordarrelle Patterson. He'll be an interesting name to track in camp and preseason to see how the Packers incorporate his skill set into their growing offense.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns have selected Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel with the 94th overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Browns have been linked to various members of the quarterback class for quite a while, and now, they finally pull the trigger in the back half of the third round. Gabriel is the fifth signal-caller off the board, joining Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, and Jalen Milroe. Interestingly, Shedeur Sanders, who was once mentioned as a candidate for Cleveland at No. 2 overall, remains available as many quarterback-needy teams opt for different players. Gabriel played six seasons of college football, with stops at UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Replacing Bo Nix with the Ducks in 2024, Gabriel completed 326 of his 447 pass attempts for 3,857 yards, 30 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also showcased his mobility with 149 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Gabriel will likely compete with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco while the Browns wait for Deshaun Watson (Achilles) to get healthy.
From RotoBaller
The Steelers used the 83rd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to add Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round. He had a solid year with the Hawkeyes despite their struggles on offense, totaling 1,537 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns on 240 attempts and adding 188 more yards and two touchdowns on 22 receptions out of the backfield. Johnson was a consensus All-American and a finalist for the Doak Walker Award as the top running back in the nation. This year, he'll team up with Jaylen Warren, who signed his restricted free agent tender, and Kenneth Gainwell to make up the primary options in the Steelers' backfield after the departure of Najee Harris to the Chargers. Johnson could replace Harris as the team's short-yardage, bigger back in the rotation.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have selected Illinois wide receiver Pat Bryant with the 74th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He was projected to go on Day 3 but was taken by Denver in Round 3 on Friday. The 6-foot-2 wide receiver has strong hands and is a big, possessive wideout who is a reliable blocker. Bryant tied for the Big Ten lead with 10 receiving touchdowns and racked up 54 catches for 984 receiving yards for Illinois last season. He will compete with Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele, and Troy Franklin to start opposite Denver's No.1 wideout, Courtland Sutton. Bryant is ranked as RotoBaller's 67th overall rookie. He could provide some fantasy value as a late-round flyer in redraft leagues in 2025 if he can secure the Broncos' No. 2 wide receiver role.
From RotoBaller
The Houston Texans have selected Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel with the 79th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Texans ultimately decided to double up on Cyclone wide receivers after taking Noel's teammate, Jayden Higgins, in the second round. Although most people did not expect the Texans to draft two wide receivers on Day 2, the decision makes sense. Houston lost Stefon Diggs during free agency, and Tank Dell (knee) likely won't be ready for Week 1 as he recovers from a brutal ACL tear. Noel and Higgins will team up alongside Nico Collins and offseason addition Christian Kirk, providing major reinforcements to support C.J. Stroud in the passing game.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Raiders drafted TCU receiver Jack Bech in the second round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bech landed in a great spot, being taken by the Raiders in the second round. With little other than All-World tight end Brock Bowers to catch passes, Bech could find playing time early in his career. It's fair to wonder if his lack of speed will truly pull him down, but Bech has been productive and looks like a player with some toughness. This landing spot should keep him around the third round of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted running back RJ Harvey in the second round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: We said all along in the pre-draft process that the landing spot for Harvey would be huge for his perceived dynasty rookie value and that's exactly what unfolded. Harvey is going to immediately push for real playing time with the likes of Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin, becoming the favorite to be the lead back in the process. Harvey has a lot to prove but he's a massive boom or bust prospect who is likely going to move up into the second round or even the late first for courageous managers in upcoming rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Cleveland Browns selected Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Fannin represents perhaps the biggest "boom or bust" player at tight end and perhaps even any position in the draft. After all, this is a player who set FBS records with 117 catches and 1,555 yards but also did it playing against sub-par competition. The Browns will likely find some creative ways to deploy him with David Njoku and Fannin makes for a fun pick with upside in the middle rounds of rookie drafts.
