Lineup Prep: Week 17

Tue Dec 24 10:40pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

McLaurin is having monster year

First off, if you are reading this, a big congrats to you because you are likely in your championship final. That is quite the accomplishment and should not be overlooked - win or lose the game this weekend. But with that all said, just remember that games are all over the place this week. It could make for some challenging decisions for those still playing. We have two games on Christmas (Wednesday), a game on Thursday, three games on Saturday, nine on Sunday and one more to finish out the week on Monday. I can’t remember a week of games so spread out. So plan accordingly and make sure your lineups are set before games' kickoff.

Now for my abbreviated random thoughts for the week. . . .

It will be interesting to see how the games on Christmas play out with the teams on such little rest between games. This could end up being a hot button issue if players get hurt or the games aren’t very entertaining for whatever reason. Here is to hoping your fantasy players don’t suffer because of the short rest.

Teams are already starting to get eliminated or have their playoff seeding set in stone. This is never fun for fantasy owners to deal with. You just never know how teams could handle hurt players that have nothing to play for. It makes for some tough lineup decisions for fantasy owners trying to figure it all out. You just never know how some of these situations end up playing out.

It is always a good idea to keep an eye on the players at the end of the season emerging for teams. These guys could end up being big factors from day one next year. Guys like Jalen McMillan, Kayshon Boutte and Jordan Addison are just a few examples of players that look to be a big part of their offenses in 2025.

Last week had some of most game-changing individual fantasy performances I can ever remember. Normally, it is a player or two each week. But last week, we had like 10 guys go off and carry teams to wins in Week 16. It made for quite the high-scoring week of games. It also made for a lot of happy fantasy owners. I’m hoping for a repeat this week. It is a lot more enjoyable when your players are scoring big.

News and Notes: The Texans signed receiver Diontae Johnson on Monday. Johnson could have an immediate impact with the team after the loss of Tank Dell last week.

HOT PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix continues be one of the top rookie quarterbacks this season. He had another game last week with 20-plus fantasy points, his eighth of the season. He has multiple touchdowns two straight and five of six games. The Broncos offense is clicking and gets another matchup for success this week for Nix. He gets the Bengals, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams had a season-high 122-rushing yards last week. He has 100-yard games two straight and three of four. His consistency has been off the charts this year, having double-digit fantasy points all but a game. Look for another big showing from him this week against the Cardinals, a team he scored 15.2 fantasy points against in Week 2. Arizona allows the seventh most fantasy points to running backs and ranks just 22nd overall against the run.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin is enjoying his best season to date, finally having a top quarterback throw him passes. He has found the end zone four straight games and topped 20 fantasy points three of those games. He is playing his best football of the season at a good time for his fantasy owners. You have to like his chances to find the end zone again this week against the Falcons. Atlanta is 21st against the pass and allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers.

Davante Adams, WR, Jets. It is a little hard to believe but Adams is once again a top-five fantasy receiver. His move back to New York has been huge for his fantasy value, reuniting with Aaron Rodgers. Adams is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games and up to 11th overall for the season despite missing three games. Adams has double-digit targets four straight and touchdowns all of those games. He has become a must start once again, especially this week against the Bills. You could see the Jets playing from behind in this one, having to throw often. Plus, Buffalo is more leaky against the pass (25th overall) than the run (14th).

Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs. Irving might not be 100 percent healthy right now but that isn’t slowing him down. He has found the end zone four of six games and has 17-plus fantasy points four of those games. He might be the best rookie back in the league. His future looks really bright. And his matchup this week looks really tasty, getting the Panthers. Carolina is dreadful against the run, allowing the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

COLD PLAYS

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Mahomes looked fine on his injured ankle last week, playing one of his better games of the season. He threw for 260 yards and a score and ran in another touchdown, scoring 26.3 fantasy points. He had fewer than 20 fantasy points three straight games before last week, though. We worry about him a little this week against a good Steelers defense on a really short week. You have to wonder how that ankle will respond. Plus, Pittsburgh allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and has one of the best pass rushes in football.

Joe Mixon, RB, Texans. Mixon has picked a bad time to produce his worst fantasy numbers of the season. He failed to hit double-digit fantasy points last week and has failed to hit that mark two of four games. He has fewer than 60-rushing yards three of those games. His work in the passing game helps his fantasy floor but his rushing numbers are a concern right now. We think he could struggle to run again this week against the Ravens. Baltimore is first overall against the run, allowing just 83.1-rushing yards per game.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams had his third 100-yard game of the season last week. He has produced some big games this season, but also been up and down. He has fewer than 40-receiving yards two of his last four games. Williams can be a boom or bust play and we think he might bust this week. He gets the 49ers, a team third against the pass and allowing the fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir is another player having a breakout season but trending the wrong way at a bad time. He had just two receptions for 22 yards on six targets last week. He has fewer than 40 yards three of four games. He is getting his looks but not producing great numbers at the moment. And a game this week against the Jets could produce similar numbers for him. New York allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks fifth overall against the pass.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys. Dowdle had his lowest rushing total of the season last week, rushing 13 times for just 23 yards. It broke a streak of three straight games with 100-plus rushing yards. He had a tough matchup, though, and gets another challenging one in Week 17. Dowdle gets the Eagles, a team he scored just 8.6 fantasy points against in Week 10. Philadelphia allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs.

SLEEPERS

Mason Rudolph, QB, Titans. Rudolph is having turnover issues but throwing for yards and touchdowns, giving him fantasy value. He has multiple scores two straight and at least 18 fantasy points the last four games he has played. Rudolph can have another multiple-touchdown game this week against the Jaguars, a team that allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He could be a sneaky play as a QB2 or streamer in deeper formats.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders. Abdullah has touchdowns two straight and four of six games. He continues to get a lot of work in the passing game, having at least five catches two straight and three of five. This gives him a solid fantasy floor, especially if you consider the Raiders are playing from behind a lot and needing to throw the ball. It would not surprise to see him find the end zone again this week against a reeling Saints team. New Orleans allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers. It is always tough to figure the Packers receiver that produces the best but Doubs seems to have the best chance right now. He played the most snaps of any Packers receiver last week. Doubs had just two catches for 20 yards in that game, but the Packers didn’t need to throw much in their matchup against a bad Saints rush defense. Doubs should get more targets this week in a game the Packers are going to need to score some points. Plus, the Vikings are much worse against the pass than the run, allowing the most fantasy points to receivers.

Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots. Boutte had career highs across the board last week and continues to emerge as a top target in the Patriots passing game. He continues to get the most playing time at receiver for the Patriots, playing at least 82 percent of the snaps 10 straight games. Boutte has been targeted at least six times six of eight games. His fantasy floor is pretty solid, giving him value as a low-end No. 3 receiver. He can produce well again this week against a Chargers defense that has been a lot more leaky against the pass of late.

Chig Okonkwo, TE, Titans. Okonkwo is finally getting his chances, having double-digit targets two straight games. He has 17 receptions during that stretch. Okonkwo has 13-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five games. He seems to have a real rapport with Mason Rudolph, giving him legit fantasy consideration going forward. And Okonkwo has a matchup to produce this week, getting the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville has struggled to stop the tight end, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Ravens/Texans, Broncos/Bengals, Cardinals/Rams, Panthers/Bucs, Packers/Vikings, Falcons/Commanders, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: Chargers/Patriots, Colts/Giants, Titans/Jaguars, Raiders/Saints.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 17

The Paur Report