RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 11

Fri Nov 15 9:34am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Mixon can keep it going Week 11

Week 11 is loaded with great matchups, despite four teams being on a bye. Let’s dig into all of the options on DFS and highlight some of the top players to consider at each position, as well as a few to potentially avoid.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, PIT vs. BAL ($5,900): The Ravens are a defense to attack through the air. They have allowed the most passing yards per game and the most passing touchdowns in the league. Wilson has already been playing well, throwing six touchdown passes over three games as a starter. He also threw for at least 264 yards in two of those games.

Justin Herbert, LAC vs. CIN ($5,300): Herbert attempted just 18 passes last week as the Chargers dominated the Titans. This will be a much more difficult matchup for the Chargers against the Bengals, who have scored an average of 27.0 points per game. Prior to last week, Herbert had thrown for at least 279 yards in three straight games and had back-to-back performances with multiple touchdown passes. He could provide significant value in a game in which he should throw plenty.

Player to Avoid

Kirk Cousins, ATL at DEN ($6,500): This is not a great matchup on the road for Cousins. The Broncos have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game in the league. They have also allowed a modest 12 passing touchdowns while also registering seven interceptions. The result has been them allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Wilson and Herbert are more appealing options at significantly cheaper salaries.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon, HOU at DAL ($7,700): Mixon finished with just 46 rushing yards against the Lions last week. However, he received 25 carries, had 44 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in his fifth straight game. He has taken on a heavy workload with his new team, rushing at least 24 times in five of his seven games. A workload like that has the potential to leave him with a gaudy stat line against the Cowboys, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

David Montgomery, DET vs. JAX ($6,500): Montgomery doesn’t have the same rushing upside that Mixon does. He received at least 17 carries in a game just three times all season. However, he does have eight rushing touchdowns and has been given 30 carries inside the red zone. He has significant touchdown potential against the Jaguars, who are tied for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed in the league.

Player to Avoid

James Cook, BUF vs. KC ($6,800): Known for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and their potent offense, the Chiefs have also become an excellent defensive team during their recent run of success. They have given up just 17.9 points per game this season. They have been particularly astute at stopping the run, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Running backs have also recorded just three total touchdowns against them this season. Stay away from Cook in DFS.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens, PIT vs. BAL ($7,000): In the first six games of the season with Justin Fields as his quarterback, Pickens had 26 receptions for 363 yards and no touchdowns. Over just three games since Wilson took over, Pickens has totaled 14 receptions for 276 yards and two touchdowns. With how bad the Ravens have been at stopping the pass, a Wilson and Pickens stack is very appealing.

Cedric Tillman, CLE at NO ($5,300): What am I missing here for Tillman to have a salary this cheap? Since the Browns traded Amari Cooper, Tillman has 21 receptions for 255 yards and three touchdowns. He was targeted at least nine times in all three games. The Saints have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league. Tillman is almost a must at this salary.

Player to Avoid

Josh Downs, IND at NYJ ($6,400): Downs has been playing well, posting 17 receptions for 241 yards and one touchdown over his last three games. However, Joe Flacco started two of those games. The Colts have turned back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback and he has completed just 44.4% of his passes this season. In addition to the downgrade at quarterback for Downs, the Jets have allowed the fewest receptions to wide receivers in the league.

Tight Ends

David Njoku, CLE at NO ($5,500): Tillman isn’t the only member of the Browns who has stepped up since Cooper was traded. Njoku has recorded at least 61 receiving yards and a touchdown in two of the last three games. He was also targeted at least seven times in each game. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends, making Njoku another appealing member of the Browns to target.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. BAL ($4,200): As we continue to try and exploit the Ravens’ secondary, Freiermuth is worth considering in tournament play. The Ravens have given up the most receptions and the third-most receiving yards to tight ends in the league. Freiermuth doesn’t have a ton of receiving yards this season, but he has posted a touchdown in three of his last six games.

Player to Avoid

Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. HOU ($4,900): Cooper Rush threw for 45 yards against the Eagles last week. That’s about as bad as it gets. With Dak Prescott (hamstring) out for the season, the Cowboys skill players take a massive hit in fantasy. It also won’t help Ferguson’s cause that the Texans have given up just 27 receptions to tight ends all season.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 11

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