Wed Nov 13 8:58am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Ridley is producing big numbers
Before I get to my random thoughts for the week, I just want to remind you all that there are some big-time bye weeks coming up. We have four teams on a bye this week. There are six teams on a by in Week 12 and six more on Week 14. Just be prepared. There are some big-time teams off. And we are at a crucial point of the season where teams are fighting for playoff spots, so everything matters so much. Get those bye-week replacements ready. As always, a proactive owners is a winning owner.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
The Bears are an absolute mess right now. I really thought that offense was going to be good this year, but I would be worried if I had any of those pieces on my fantasy roster. I’m not sure an offensive coordinator change is going to fix things. I think they need a whole new coaching philosophy to be put in place. Caleb Williams has not played well at all despite having all sorts of offensive weapons to work with. If you compare rookies Bo Nix and Drake Maye to Williams, these guys have so much less talent to work with but both are playing much, much better than Williams. Something just isn’t right in Chicago. Not good.
The fantasy quarterback position hasn’t been nearly as deep as I thought it would be this year. I really thought this was a great year to wait on a quarterback and platoon two guys based on matchups. I’m not sure that strategy is working, though. Fantasy quarterbacks after the elite guys have been really hit or miss. Maybe they will start to show more consistency going forward, but I wouldn’t count on it. You have to wonder if defenses are catching up with these prolific passing attacks a little.
It is exciting to see Bijan Robinson living up to his potential this year. The coaching staff is doing a better job of using him, but I’m still not sure it has been perfect. Tyler Allgeier is still getting more work than you would hope, especially around the goal line. Allgeier got stuffed three times at the goal line last week. They take him out and put in Robinson, who scores on his first carry. It is just a little baffling how these Falcons coaching staffs continue to use Robinson. Things are better this year but could be even better. And even with that said, Robinson is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring and posting big weekly numbers.
NFL kickers are absolutely amazing these days. They had a stat on the Monday night game that stated kickers are 70 percent accurate on kicks of 50-plus yards this season. That is nuts. It used to be a feat for a kicker to make a 50-yard field goal but now it is a big shock if they miss. These guys have really perfected the art of kicking. It is pretty amazing to watch.
Hopefully, you weren’t an owner that dropped tight end Mark Andrews after his terrible start. He is playing more and producing. He has 14-plus fantasy points four of five games. Andrews is eighth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. This guy has been an elite tight end for years and seems to have regained that form. I’m still not sure what was going on earlier this season, but that seems a thing of the past now. Things are looking much better for Andrews.
If I were the Cowboys, I just roll with Trey Lance as my starting quarterback going forward. This team is going nowhere, so why not see what you have in Lance. He certainly is a talented player that has looked the part at times while starting in the NFL. Cooper Rush is going to be a career backup in my view, so give the talented Lance a shot to see what you have in him.
I was a little surprised to see the Panthers sign Hubbard to a long-term contract. He is having a great season and looks to be a legit starting NFL back, but Jonathan Brooks is waiting in the wings for carries. Brooks is a super-talented rookie that was expected to take this backfield over once he is recovered from his torn ACL. Maybe the Panthers don’t like what they have been with Brooks, though, so that is why the signed Hubbard. Who knows? I hope that is the case because they just used a lot of money on a running back, which isn’t the norm in the NFL these days.
News and Notes: The Seahawks released linebacker Tyrel Dodson on Monday. This was a surprise as Dodson had started every game of the season. The Dolphins claimed Dodson off waivers on Tuesday. . . . .The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday. Assistant coach Thomas X. Brown will take over the offensive coordinator duties for the Bears.
HOT PLAYS
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans. Stroud has not been much of a help to fantasy teams in recent weeks. He has fewer than 18 fantasy points four straight games. He showed some signs of life against a good Lions team last week, throwing for 232 yards and a touchdown. Remember, he has been without his top receiver the last several weeks. Well, Nico Collins is expected back this week, which should be a big boost for Stroud. Look for him to have his best game in several weeks this week against the Cowboys. Dallas is a mess right now and allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs. This week might be the last for Hunt to start with Isiah Pacheco nearing a return. But as long as Hunt is starting, he has huge fantasy value in this offense. Hunt has double-digit fantasy points every single game this season. He had a season-high seven receptions last week on 10 targets. He has 17-plus points four of five games. Hunt just gets it done as the starter for the Chiefs. He should get a big workload this week against a bad Bills rush defense. Buffalo allows the second most fantasy points to running backs.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans. Apparently, all that Ridley needed to get going was DeAndre Hopkins to get traded. Ridley has been as good as any fantasy receiver in the game in recent weeks. Ridley is fourth overall in fantasy scoring his last three games. He has 23-plus points two of those games. He has been targeted at least eight times five straight, getting a lot of weekly looks. He has become a must start, especially this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 26th overall against the pass.
Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall has been a disappointment this year. He isn’t having that monster season many thought he would have. He is 11th overall in fantasy running back scoring, though, so it isn’t all bad for him. He has produced some big games. Hall has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. We like his chances for one of those big games this week against the Colts, rewarding those fantasy owners that used a top-five pick on him. Indianapolis is 30th against the run, allowing 148.3-rushing yards per game. Look for Hall to get a big workload in this one.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns. Tillman is another player red hot since the trade of a player. He is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. Tillman has 18-plus fantasy points three straight games. He has been targeted 32 times those three games. He is the favorite target of Jameis Winston and producing huge in that role. Tillman should keep it up in Week 11 against the Saints. New Orleans allows the 11th most fantasy points to receivers and ranks just 29th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Jordan Love, QB, Packers. Love has not been great in recent weeks. He has fewer than 15 fantasy points two straight games, which came against two teams that had been struggling against the pass (Jaguars, Lions). It seems his knee injury is slowing him some. And now he gets the Bears this week, a team that has a great pass defense. Chicago allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks seventh overall against the pass. If you have better options, go with them in Week 11.
Tony Pollard, RB, Titans. Tyjae Spears finally returned from injury last week and put a huge dent in Pollard’s playing time. Pollard played a season-low 54 percent of the snaps. He pretty much split the work with Spears, which was kind of expected before the season. This limits the ceiling of Pollard, though. He had 13 touches for 63 yards last week. Pollard could have a similar performance this week against the Vikings. Minnesota is terrible against the pass but do very well against the run. The Vikings allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank second overall against the run.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers. Gus Edwards returned to the lineup last week and cut into the playing time of Dobbins. Dobbins played 66 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since Week 3 of the season. Dobbins also failed to hit double-digit fantasy points last week, making it two times in four games. He has been a tad more hit-or-miss lately. It would not surprise to see him have another ho-hum game against the Bengals in Week 11. Cincinnati allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Meyers has emerged as the top target at receiver for the Raiders with Davante Adams gone. He has played well in that role, having 14 receptions on 18 targets his last two games. He is getting it done. But even with that said, Meyers probably isn’t a matchup-proof fantasy play. He gets a very good Dolphins secondary this week, a secondary that just held the Rams in check last week. Miami allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks eighth overall against the pass.
Josh Downs, WR, Colts. Downs has been great since his return from injury in Week 3. He has 12-plus fantasy points six of seven games. He was targeted 10 times last week and has at least nine targets three straight. We worry about him this week despite those great numbers, though. Joe Flacco has not played well in recent weeks and now gets a very good Jets defense. He could struggle once again, which isn’t great news for Downs. New York allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and is second overall against the pass.
SLEEPERS
Russell Wilson, QB, Steelers. Wilson has been great since getting inserted into the Steelers starting lineup. He is 10th in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. Wilson has 21-plus fantasy points two of three games. He had his first three-touchdown game of the season last week. Wilson is a legit fantasy play right now, especially this week against the Ravens. Baltimore has been horrible against the pass all season, allowing the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks while ranking dead last against the pass.
Gabe Davis, WR, Jaguars. Davis is a hard player to trust, especially if Mac Jones is starting at quarterback, but he is always capable of the big game. He also played the most snaps of any Jaguars receiver last week. He was targeted four times in the game and caught a pass for 19 yards. Trevor Lawrence could return this week and Davis has a prime matchup against the Lions. These are two big positives for Davis, giving him some spot start potential. Detroit allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.
Will Dissly, TE, Chargers. Dissly has become the top tight end for the Chargers. He had five receptions last week and has at least five catches three of four games. His floor is pretty solid right now in an offense that is throwing the ball better. We like him to have another solid game this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati has struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. The Bengals also are just 23rd overall against the pass.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins. Wright played more snaps than Raheem Mostert last week and was in the game at crucial times late, showing the Dolphins have faith in his abilities. He could be getting more work going forward. Wright has at least five carries five of six games. If he gets that much work this week against the Raiders, he could do a little damage. Las Vegas is brutal against the run, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Wright could be a sneaky play for fantasy teams.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams returned from his suspension last week and played his usual number of snaps (74 percent). He didn’t have a huge game but was solid, catching three passes for 53 yards on five targets. Remember, he had 14-plus fantasy points four of his first five games this season. He is capable of the huge game any given week. We think one of those games could come this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is playing better defensively lately but still allows the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks just 30th against the pass.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Commanders/Eagles, Ravens/Steelers, Seahawks/49ers, Chiefs/Bills.
Low Scoring Games: Vikings/Titans, Packers/Bears.
Byes: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Bucs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. (back) did not practice on Wednesday. The fifth-year receiver injured his back during last Sunday's win over the San Francisco 49ers. As of now, his status for Week 12 is up in the air, but Wednesday's absence isn't a good sign. Regardless of whether Shenault suits up this week against the Arizona Cardinals, he should be left on waivers in all fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken acknowledged last week that the team has had a tough time finding ways to involve new wide receiver Diontae Johnson into their offense after acquiring him at the trade deadline from the Carolina Panthers. ESPN's Dan Graziano gets the sense that Baltimore considered Johnson too good of a player to pass on at the price that the Panthers were asking. He also gives the Ravens an option to use more three-receiver sets than they typically utilize if they want to go in that direction. Baltimore doesn't roll with many three-receiver sets, though, and aren't expected to have a major midseason scheme shakeup, which means that Johnson could just end up being a veteran insurance policy for top receiver Zay Flowers. He has only one catch on four targets for six yards in his three games with the Ravens and should be left on benches in Week 12 versus the Chargers.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers have brought new wide receiver Mike Williams along slowly after acquiring him at the trade deadline from the New York Jets, but they expect him to have a role for them at some point and are planning to get him more involved in the offense in the coming weeks. Williams entered the game due to an injury to Calvin Austin III to catch the game-winning touchdown pass in the Week 10 win over the Washington Commanders and was even more limited in the Week 11 win over the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't expect Williams to do much on Thursday night against the division-rival Cleveland Browns, though, on a short week with potentially bad weather in Cleveland. The 30-year-old played 12% of the snaps in Week 10 and 32% last week, catching a combined one pass on one target for 32 yards and a touchdown.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler writes that the Detroit Lions didn't acquire pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith at the trade deadline this year to replace Aidan Hutchinson (leg), who is out for the rest of the season. Instead, the Lions expect the 32-year-old veteran to be a key complementary player on their defensive line. The Lions will rely heavily on defensive tackles Alim McNeill and DJ Reader to generate a pass rush, while Smith and Josh Paschal start on the outside. Smith played 37 defensive snaps in his first game with the team in the Week 11 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, generating half a sack. Fowler expects Detroit to continue to be smart about Smith's snaps, which means fantasy managers in IDP leagues should temper expectations. The Lions are going to need a total team effort to replace Hutchinson's All-Pro production.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman (groin) could be considered week-to-week after he was hurt in the Sunday night win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. Perryman is getting second opinions on his groin this week and could be forced to miss the Monday night showdown against the Baltimore Ravens to close out Week 12 action. The Chargers won't have their first official practice of the week until Thursday, where it's likely Perryman will be listed as a DNP. Losing the 31-year-old veteran linebacker for a date against a high-octane offense like the Ravens would be a key blow to the Bolts' defense this week. In 10 games for the Chargers so far in 2024, Perryman has been productive with 54 tackles (38 solo) and one sack.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler likes Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix to have another big day for his fantasy managers in the Week 12 divisional matchup against a depleted Las Vegas Raiders defense. Nix has become the first rookie QB since Justin Herbert with multiple games with at least a 75 percent completion percentage and at least three touchdown passes. The 24-year-old from Oregon had the best game of his career in the Week 11 blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns. He was already trending up in fantasy heading into last week's game, but after that performance, he should be rostered in pretty much all fantasy leagues. Vegas' D has been a top-10 fantasy matchup for QBs all year and they've given up the most fantasy points to the position in the last three weeks. Nix is a firm QB1 as Denver looks to sweep their division rivals in 2024.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler thinks Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore is a sleeper for WR2 duty heading into a divisional showdown in primetime on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers to kick off Week 12 action. Moore has had 29 targets the last three weeks with quarterback Jameis Winston running the offense. He had 66 receiving yards and his first touchdown of the year in the Week 11 loss to the New Orleans Saints. At 2-8 on the year, Fowler sees no reason why the Browns will stray from a high-volume passing attack with Winston in a tough matchup against the visiting Steelers this week. There's no arguing that Cleveland's pass-catchers have become more interesting with Winston under center, but the matchup certainly isn't ideal for fantasy purposes against a top defense with nasty weather expected.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Dan Graziano thinks New York Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. could have a big Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to RBs this year. Although Tracy had a costly overtime fumble in the Week 10 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Germany before their Week 11 bye, the rookie did have his third 100-yard rushing performance as well. The fumble shouldn't affect his role moving forward, with Graziano writing that the Giants see him as a more dynamic option than Devin Singletary in an offense that is turning to Tommy Devito under center moving forward. It wouldn't be a surprise for the G-Men to lean on the ground game as much as possible this week against Tampa. Tracy should be viewed as a high-end RB2 for fantasy managers in a week with six teams on bye.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans defensive back Derek Stingley Jr. (hip) logged a limited session in the team's first practice of the week. The former third-overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has been battling a hip ailment for the last two weeks, though it didn't stop him from suiting up in Week 11's 34-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, Stingley Jr. began last week as a DNP before elevating his practice status over the ensuing two days and entering the weekend without a designation. Houston is likely giving the 23-year-old a bit of rest after he recorded two tackles and an interception -- his second of the season -- on his highest total snap count of the season (74). He's likely not in danger of missing the Texans' Week 12 tilt against the Tennessee Titans. Still, fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on his practice participation over the next two days.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Harrison Bryant (ankle) was labeled as a DNP on Wednesday for the team's first practice of the week. Bryant did not suit up for the Raiders' Week 11 outing against the Miami Dolphins, and it's the third time he was listed as a non-participant dating back to last Wednesday while battling through an ankle injury. Second-year tight end Michael Mayer returned to action against Miami after a lengthy absence and participated in 52% of Las Vegas' snaps, so it's likely that when Bryant is active, he'll be back to playing third fiddle in the TE room. Still, with standout rookie tight end Brock Bowers garnering 26.4% of the team's targets, Mayer and Bryant will just be vying for the scraps.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Ben Sinnott (illness) was a limited participant in their first practice of Week 12. The 22-year-old has been active for every game this season, and while he isn't in danger of missing his first contest just yet, we'll see if he can improve his practice status leading up to the Commanders' home matchup against their division-rival Dallas Cowboys this Sunday. Fellow tight end Zach Ertz (NIR) was tagged with a DNP, but it's apparently just a day of rest for the veteran. The rookie has seen his snap share dwindle over the previous few weeks, logging his lowest total of the season in last weekend's 26-18 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (9%). Still, he's reeled in all three of his targets in 2024 for 18 yards and a touchdown. If Sinnott can't play, Ertz and John Bates will pick up the slack as the only other active tight ends on the roster.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back Emari Demercado (shoulder) was a limited participant in the team's first practice after their Week 11 bye. The TCU product evidently picked up a shoulder issue at some point between Arizona's 31-6 victory over the New York Jets in Week 10 and Wednesday's practice, but that he could log a limited session suggests it might not be that serious. The Cards have a divisional clash on tap with the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday, and the 25-year-old will have two more opportunities to elevate his practice status before the team must label him with a designation for the Week 12 road tilt. Rookie running back Trey Benson has seen his snap and opportunity share increase over the team's last few games and would be in line for more work behind lead back James Conner if Demercado can't suit up.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman turned in his slowest performance since being elevated to a full-time role last week as he caught just three passes for 47 scoreless yards in a loss to the New Orleans Saints. Tillman will look to bounce back at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. The Steelers have been tough on opposing receivers this season as they are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position thus far. Tillman has shown a high ceiling since taking over as a starting receiver in Cleveland, making him a strong play as a high-end WR3 heading into Week 12 despite the difficult matchup.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins struggled in a Week 11 loss to the New Orleans Saints, missing two of his four field-goal attempts. He will look to bounce back at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. The Steelers have been a difficult matchup for kickers in fantasy this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. With six misses on 20 field-goal attempts this season, Hopkins is not a recommended fantasy option for Week 12's slate of games.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford has been quiet in the two games that he's shared the backfield with Nick Chubb this season, rushing for just 15 yards on seven carries. The return of Chubb from injury has relegated Ford to mostly passing-game work after he opened the season as the team's lead back. Ford will hope to produce better numbers in a home matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. Ford isn't getting consistent enough work for fantasy gamers to trust in starting lineups, especially in a tough matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (knee) turned in his best game of the season last week, catching six passes for 142 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the New Orleans Saints. He will look to stay hot at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. The Steelers have been a difficult matchup for receivers this season as they allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The veteran receiver is listed without an injury designation heading into Thursday despite being listed with a knee injury on the practice report earlier in the week. Jeudy's performance last week was certainly encouraging but the prohibitive matchup in Week 12 does not set up for a likely encore. That being said, Jeudy is still worth plugging into fantasy lineups as a WR3 this week.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston has passed for at least 334 yards and two touchdowns in two of his past three starts. He will look to stay productive at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. The Steelers' tough defense represents a difficult matchup for Winston as they are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. A weather forecast that calls for rain and cold also doesn't bode well for Winston's game. Fantasy gamers should treat him as a low-end QB2 for Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has been held to just 163 rushing yards and one touchdown on 53 carries through four games this season. He will look to break out at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12's Thursday night game. The Steelers have been a difficult matchup for opposing running backs this season as they are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Chubb should continue to see the majority of the carries for the Browns but he may struggle to find much room to operate against Pittsburgh. Fantasy gamers should treat him as a mid-range RB3/flex option heading into Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant (groin) missed another practice on Wednesday as the club begins preparing for their Week 12 tilt against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. In addition, Brady Russell (foot) was a DNP. Fant suffered a groin injury the day before Halloween and missed games in Weeks 9 and 11 (Seattle had a bye in Week 10). Unless the 27-year-old is able to make progress in two practices to close out the week, he figures to be in line to miss a third straight game. If that happens, rookie AJ Barner will represent a low-end TE2 sleeper for the third straight week. The 22-year-old fourth-round selection out of Michigan earlier this year has caught six passes on 11 targets for 42 yards and no touchdowns the last two games with Fant sidelined. Barner's lone TD pass of his rookie season came back in the Week 4 loss to the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is coming off a stellar performance in Week 11 and will hope to pick up right where he left off against the Cleveland Browns in Week 12. Boswell has been the most reliable fantasy scorer at his position this season, having made 29 of his 30 field goal attempts and all 20 of his extra-point tries. This is an especially appealing spot for Boswell, not only because the Browns surrender the 13th-most fantasy points per contest to kickers, but also because of the game environment many are expecting on Thursday night. This AFC North showdown is projected to be a defensive battle with touchdowns coming at a premium. Even with the possibility of harsh weather conditions in Cleveland, fantasy managers can lock Boswell into starting lineups.
From RotoBaller