Brown has some ideal matchups

Every team is scheduled to play either six or seven games during Week 14, leaving plenty of projected two-start pitchers. Let’s highlight five of them and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy production.

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros: at TOR, at DET

Brown has been limited to three starts this season because of a shoulder injury. He made his return from the injured list Tuesday, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings against the Tigers. While he was a little wild with three walks, he also recorded seven strikeouts and limited them to three hits. Limiting baserunners was a major strength for him last season, as he finished with a 1.03 WHIP.

Now that Brown is healthy again, he can return to being one of the more valuable starting pitchers in fantasy. Last season, he broke out with a 3.15 xERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate. Two ideal matchups await him in Week 14. The Blue Jays have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball, while the Tigers have scored the fifth-fewest. Neither team has much power, as both rank in the bottom half of baseball in home runs. For those who suffered through Brown being on the injured list for more than two months, it could be time to start reaping the rewards of rostering him again.

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees: at DET, at BOS

Rodón dealt with his own injury issues that prevented him from making his season debut until May 10. However, he has allowed three or fewer runs in all seven of his starts since. His 3.50 ERA is backed by a 3.57 xERA, and he has surrendered just 0.8 HR/9. Even his strikeout rate has increased to 27.2%. The only real concern is his 13.2% walk rate. Even with that factored in, he has a respectable 1.25 WHIP.

Rodón is lined up to face the Tigers and Red Sox next week, presenting him with two great matchups. We’ve already detailed the Tigers’ struggles, and the Red Sox have been even worse. They have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball while also posting a middling .684 OPS at Fenway Park. Even Rodón’s lack of control might not be as big of an issue against the Red Sox because they have the third-lowest walk rate in baseball. Deploy Rodón with confidence.

Michael King, San Diego Padres: vs. ATL, vs. LAD

King’s 3.60 ERA looks good, but there are reasons to be concerned about him moving forward. His 4.74 xERA indicates that some regression could be coming. He also isn’t missing many bats, posting a 21.0% strikeout rate. That had been an area of success for him in the past, given his career 26.1% strikeout rate. His 9.8% barrel rate allowed is also on pace to be the second-highest mark of his career.

Two scary matchups await King next week. The Braves have scored the sixth-most runs in baseball, while the Dodgers have scored the second-most. King did face the Dodgers earlier this season, posting nine strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. It also helps that both starts will be in San Diego, where he has posted a 3.53 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP since joining the Padres. Despite these two opponents, don’t bench King in fantasy.

Kodai Senga, New York Mets: vs. CHC, vs. PHI

Senga recently missed seven weeks with back and arm injuries. In his first start off the injured list, he allowed four runs over four innings against the Reds. He walked four batters, which has been an area of concern for him this year. Over 24 innings, he has issued 17 free passes. Making matters worse, he has also allowed seven home runs.

Senga already faced the Cubs once this season, allowing seven runs (six earned) across 3 1/3 innings. In that outing, he issued three walks and gave up two home runs. The Phillies can exploit Senga’s wildness and propensity for giving up home runs with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the fold. Although Senga was a valuable fantasy option last season, he shouldn’t be deployed in most fantasy leagues until he shows signs of turning things around.

Aaron Civale, Athletics: at SF, at LAA

At first glance, Civale doesn’t have the stats of someone to consider in fantasy. His 5.50 xERA is even worse than his 4.91 ERA. He has allowed 1.8 HR/9 and has posted just a 15.4% strikeout rate. His inability to miss bats has contributed to his 1.59 WHIP. That’s a dramatic increase from his career WHIP of 1.24.

One of the main reasons for Civale’s struggles has been his hitter-friendly home stadium. He has a 5.66 xFIP and a 1.99 WHIP at home, compared to a 4.71 xFIP and a 1.23 WHIP on the road. Not only will both of his starts come on the road next week, but they will also come against two favorable opponents. The Giants have scored the ninth-fewest runs, while the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the majors. For those hunting for a streaming option, Civale has some appeal in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.