Burns could come up huge

Week 13 brings a mix of high and low-end two-start pitching options. Among the biggest names who is projected to take the mound twice is Gerrit Cole. Let’s highlight five other two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy returns.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds: vs. NYM, at NYY

In his last start, Burns had seven strikeouts and allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Padres. That marked the 10th straight outing in which he gave up two or fewer runs. His ERA is down to 2.14 and it’s supported by a 2.92 xERA. Opponents only have a 38.2% hard-hit rate against him, which has helped him record a 0.99 WHIP.

We already saw Burns face the Mets last month. He logged 5 1/3 innings against them, allowing two runs and posting eight strikeouts. The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge (ribs) and they have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors. Burns is matchup proof at this point, but these two foes could certainly help him produce stellar stat lines.

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays: at BOS, at CHC

In his first start back from a hamstring injury, Cease had 11 strikeouts and allowed one run over six innings against the Phillies. He threw 93 pitches, so he should be fine for his normal workload moving forward. His 36.8% strikeout rate is on pace to be the highest mark of his career, while his 5.4% barrel rate allowed would be his lowest allowed.

Two favorable matchups await Cease in Week 13. The Red Sox are having a disappointing season with their lineup scoring the second-fewest runs in baseball. The Cubs have been slumping at the plate, as well, scoring three or fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games. They also haven’t hit for a ton of power with their .152 ISO ranking 16th in baseball. Start Cease with confidence.

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: vs. COL, vs. TOR

Imanaga went into Wednesday’s start against the Rockies at Coors Field having allowed 26 runs over his previous four starts. Over that four-game span, he gave up 12 home runs. Amazingly, he made it through Coors Field unscathed, pitching five scoreless innings. His 1.06 WHIP for the season is great, and his strikeout rate of 24.8% is more than four percentage points higher than last season. However, his downfall has been allowing 1.9 HR/9.

Imanaga will face the Rockies again next week, this time in Chicago. That change of location should work in his favor because the Rockies only have a .675 OPS on the road. The Blue Jays are a good contact-hitting team, but they are tied for the seventh-fewest home runs in the majors. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Imanaga emerged from the week with two valuable starts.

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays: at LAD, vs. WAS

Martinez has proven to be a great addition for the Rays, posting a 2.43 ERA over 13 games. However, there are areas of concern. His 4.41 xERA indicates that some regression could be on the horizon. He also doesn’t miss many bats, recording a 13.8% strikeout rate. That’s nothing new for him, given his career 16.6% strikeout rate.

With his lack of strikeout upside, Martinez needs to have favorable matchups to be worth deploying in fantasy. He won’t have that next week. First up will be the Dodgers, who have scored the most runs and posted the highest OPS in the majors. Then he will face the Nationals, who have scored the second-most runs and rank fourth in OPS. They are also two good contact hitting teams. The Dodgers have the third-lowest strikeout rate and the Nationals have the 11^th-lowest mark. As good as Martinez has been, this is the week to bench him in 12-team leagues.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. LAA, vs. MIN

Nelson was shelled in his last start, allowing seven runs over four innings to the Marlins. His ERA is up to 5.19, and his xERA is equally as poor at 5.31. After allowing 1.0 HR/9 last season, he has given up 2.0 HR/9 this year. His strikeout rate has also dropped from 21.3% last season to 17.5% this year. Add all of that together and it has been difficult to justify rostering him in most formats.

A matchup against the Angels might make Nelson worth considering as a streaming option next week. They have the highest strikeout rate in the majors at 24.8%. That has contributed to them having the ninth-worst OPS (.701). The Twins haven’t been much better with a .705 OPS. Even their strikeout rate of 22.6% is the 11th-highest mark in baseball. Streaming Nelson comes with some risk, but given these matchups, he could be worth taking a chance on if you need innings.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.