Fried is a must start this week

Just about every team has at least one pitcher who is expected to make two starts in Week 8. There are some big names among them, including Paul Skenes and Michael King. Let’s highlight five projected two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy value.

Max Fried, New York Yankees: at SEA, vs. NYM

Where would the Yankees be without Fried? With Gerrit Cole (elbow) out for the season, Fried has taken over as the team’s ace. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight starts. While his 1.05 ERA likely isn’t sustainable, he has a 3.54 xFIP and a 0.91 WHIP. His walk rate is down to 5.3% and he has given up only three home runs over 51 2/3 innings.

Fried won’t have the easiest of matchups in Week 8. The Mariners are tied for the seventh-most runs scored in baseball, while the Mets are tied for the 10th-most. Both the Mariners and the Mets also rank inside the top 10 in baseball in OPS. However, against a good Padres lineup in his last start, Fried allowed one run and had eight strikeouts over seven innings. He can slow down even the best of lineups, so be sure to keep him locked into fantasy starting lineups.

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks: at SF, vs. COL

After posting a 4.03 ERA and a 3.89 xFIP last season, Kelly has a 4.09 ERA and 4.12 xFIP this season. Both marks are close to in line with his career 3.83 ERA and 4.10 xFIP. Kelly has just an 18.4% strikeout rate this season and a 21.7% strikeout rate for his career. All of those stats don’t make him a very appealing fantasy option.

Kelly is matchup dependent when it comes to feeling good about deploying him in fantasy. The Giants have a dangerous lineup, but they are also tied for the seventh-most strikeouts in baseball. The Rockies have struck out the most times while posting the second-lowest OPS in baseball. Kelly will also avoid Coors Field with his start against the Rockies coming in Arizona. This is a viable week to consider streaming Kelly.

Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers: vs. COL, vs. HOU

Mahle has not allowed more than two runs in any of his eight starts this season. Although he only has 32 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings, he has a 0.98 WHIP and has allowed just two home runs. Another key to his success has been allowing just a 5.9% barrel rate. If there is a cause for concern, it’s that his 4.04 xFIP is far worse than his 1.48 ERA.

Regression could be coming for Mahle’s ERA, but it might have to wait at least one more week. Facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is about as good of a matchup as it gets. The Astros aren’t as formidable as in seasons past, ranking 20th in runs scored. Mahle could also avoid facing Yordan Alvarez (hand), who is currently on the 10-day IL. Even if Alvarez is back in time, this is a good week to feel confident about Mahle.

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels: at SD, at LAD

Despite his 3.83 ERA, it has been a disappointing beginning to the season for Kikuchi. After posting a 28.0% strikeout rate last season, his strikeout rate sits at 21.1% through eight starts. His walk rate has also jumped from 6.0% last year to 10.8% this season. That is one of the main reasons why he has a bloated 1.46 WHIP. Keeping hitters off base has been an issue for Kikuchi, given his career 1.35 WHIP.

Facing the Padres and Dodgers could spell doom for a pitcher who can’t keep hitters off base. The Padres make a lot of contact, posting the fewest strikeouts in baseball. The Dodgers have scored the third-most runs and have the second-highest OPS in baseball. This is not the week to take a chance on Kikuchi in fantasy.

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays: at TOR, at MIA

Baz has a disappointing 4.93 ERA through seven starts. However, there are some reasons to be encouraged about him moving forward. His xFIP is significantly better at 3.99. His strikeout rate has increased from 21.6% last season to 24.5% this year. Part of the problem is that he has faced some difficult matchups. He has made starts against the Red Sox, Yankees, Padres and Phillies already.

In terms of matchups, things will shift in Baz’s favor for Week 8. The Blue Jays have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball and have hit a total of just 26 home runs as a team. The Marlins rank 16th in runs scored and have the 10th-worst home OPS in baseball. This is a great opportunity for Baz to make improvements on his ERA and provide a boost for fantasy managers.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.