Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games

Wed Jan 15 9:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Gibbs is producing at huge clip

Here is to hoping the games are better this weekend. On paper, it certainly looks like they should be some great ones. I really wouldn’t put it past any of the teams still playing advancing this weekend. For me, the Texans are the longest shot of the group but they hung with the Chiefs just a few weeks back, losing 27-19. Anything can happen this time of year. Let’s hope for some big-time performances this weekend.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

Maybe I’m in the minority but I just don’t see Deion Sanders being a great NFL coach. Maybe if he surrounds himself with the right coaching staff, but that is the only way I have a lot of faith in him. I just think his time in Colorado has been a bit of a circus. But as you know, Jerry Jones loves chaos, so maybe that is what he is looking for. We’ll see. For me, it is a hard pass on Sanders.

I like Ben Johnson the most out of all the candidates out there. He will have his pick of the litter with job offers. If I’m him, I take my time and make sure everything is in place before I accept any offer. There are plenty of questions surrounding a lot of these teams, which is why they are looking for new head coaches. The Cowboys probably have the best talent to work with, so they top my list if you are alright with putting up with a bit of a crazy owner. After Dallas, I think Chicago is the most intriguing. They really have a lot of top, young talent and a general manager that seems to know what he is doing.

I hate to say it but Sam Darnold cost himself a lot of money his last few games. He did not play well, causing some questions for teams considering him as their next quarterback. And this includes the Vikings, who have J.J. McCarthy expected to be the starter at some point for Minnesota. I still think some team might overpay for him this offseason, though. Don’t rule that out. Either way, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The narrative before the season was of the rookie receivers, Marvin Harrison was in the best situation for success. He played in the best offense with the best quarterback of the top rookie options. Well, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers proved that theory wrong. They were in offenses that didn’t produce well and had suspect quarterback play but still ended the season as top-10 fantasy receivers as rookie. Meanwhile, Harrison was just 30th overall in receiver scoring. Maybe we need to re-think how we value these talented rookies going forward. Talent can overcome a lot of things, so maybe just ranking based on the situation is the wrong way to go.

Derrick Henry might be on a mission these playoffs. He really wants that Super Bowl title and this is likely his best chance to get it. He looked as good as ever last week. I really look for the Ravens to ride him hard during the playoffs. Henry is going to get his chance to carry the offense and the Ravens to a Super Bowl title. His play just elevates the entire offense, including Lamar Jackson. This team is fun to watch.

News and Notes: The Texans released wide receiver Diontae Johnson on Tuesday. He is having a hard time staying on a roster at this point of his career.

HOT PLAYS

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir continues to be the most dependable option in the Bills passing game. He wasn’t off the charts last week but solid, catching six passes for 61 yards. And if the Bills are going to beat the Ravens defense, it is through the air. Shakir could do some damage this week against a Ravens defense that was 31st against the pass compared to first overall against the run. Look for him to get plenty of targets in this one.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles. Hurts played his usual solid game last week in his return from a concussion. He had two touchdowns without a turnover. Hurts can get back to his big ways another week removed from his injury. He had 25-plus fantasy points two straight games before getting hurt in Week 16. Hurts can do some damage this week against a Rams defense that struggled to stop the pass throughout the season. The Eagles offensive line is much better than the Vikings and should be able to withstand the pressure this week, giving Hurts time to throw the ball. Plus, the Rams allowed the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs is a must start no matter the matchup these days. He has become an elite fantasy back. Gibbs has four straight games with 25-plus fantasy points. He has topped 100-rushing yards three straight. We look for another huge game from Gibbs this week against Washington. The Commanders were just 30th overall against the run, allowing 137.5-rushing yards per game during the regular season.

COLD PLAYS

Joe Mixon, RB, Texans. Mixon had a strong game in the Texans playoff opener. He hit the 100-yard mark and scored 17.9 fantasy points. It was the first time he produced big in some time, though. He had fewer than nine fantasy points three straight games before last week, having fewer than 60-rushing yards all three of those games. We think he could have another down showing this week against a really good Chiefs rush defense. The Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and ranked eighth overall against the rush. And in Week 16 against the Chiefs, Mixon had just 8.1 fantasy points.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. The Rams won last week and Stafford played a solid game but threw for just 209 yards and failed to top 20 fantasy points. Stafford has not topped 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 14, hitting that mark just one time his last six games. Things won’t get any easier for him this week against Philadelphia. The Eagles were first against the pass this season and allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders. Ertz had a good season with the Commanders but been a little up or down throughout the season. He had just two catches for 23 yards on four targets last week. He has topped 50 yards in a game just once since Week 8. He has fewer than five fantasy points three of five games. We would not be surprised if Ertz has one of those down games this week. The Lions did well against the tight end throughout the season, allowing the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

SLEEPERS

Dyami Brown, WR, Commanders. Brown continues to get more and more playing time in the Commanders offense. He played 62 percent of the snaps last week and has played at least 62 percent of the snaps three of four games. He had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. We think you want to get as many playmakers involved on both teams in what should be a high-scoring game. So Brown could produce well once again against the Lions, a team that allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers this year.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert found the end zone for the third time of the season last week. He had four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has four receptions each of his last two games. He has returned to the lineup and played a big role in the offense. Look for more of the same for him this week against the Rams. The Rams really struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill scored a touchdown last week and had 12.5 fantasy points. He had 10 touches in the game. Hill played 39 percent of the snaps in his return to the lineup. Derrick Henry is the clear starter and workhorse back for the Ravens, but Hill gets his weekly chances. Hill could be a sneaky flex play this week in a game we look for the Ravens to run often. The Bills allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Commanders/Lions, Ravens/Bills.

Low Scoring Games: Texans/Chiefs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games

The Paur Report