Lineup Prep: Week 14

Wed Dec 4 9:17am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Meyers has become a must start

Well, this is it for a lot of your leagues. It is make or break time. And unfortunately, there are six teams on a bye, including some really good ones. This might make it a little hard for some of you. Hopefully, you planned ahead and have some adequate replacements. And if you didn’t, here is to hoping you learned a lesson about being proactive with situations like this. A proactive owner is a winning owner. Good luck this week!

Now for my random thoughts. . . .

We had a full slate of games last week and they were really fantastic. It started on Thanksgiving and ended with a great one on Monday night. I can’t remember a week full of games that was so exciting. And we had it for four days. It doesn’t get much better than that. Let’s hope that is a trend for the rest of the season.

C.J. Stroud is a prime example of the importance of a good offensive line. He looks horrible this year compared to last, but is getting harassed on a weekly basis. And all the hits he has taken has led him to make throws he should make when not pressured. I would expect the Texans to invest heavy in offensive line help this offseason to make sure their franchise quarterback gets it going again. It has not been pretty for him this year.

Don’t look now but Mahomes is up to eighth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He still isn’t having the season you hoped if you drafted him but it hasn’t been a complete disaster. He has three-touchdown games three of five. He also had his second 300-yard game of the season last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went on a run in the fantasy playoffs, leading his owners to a lot of championships.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear No. 1 target in the Seahawks passing game right now. He is eighth in fantasy scoring compared to 26th for DK Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has 19-plus fantasy points three of four games. He is posting consistent, big weekly numbers in this offense. He is going to be a good one for years to come. I feel like his season is getting overlooked a little, but his numbers have been great. He has been a difference maker for fantasy teams.

I can’t believe some of the time management issues at the end of games this past week. It is baffling that an NFL team with coaches all over the place still run into these issues. It shouldn’t happen. The time management issues in Chicago were the last straw for Matt Eberflus, who lost his job after the game. I just can’t believe stuff like this happens in the NFL. Baffling.

You have to feel for Christian McCaffrey. Just when it looks like he is healthy and back to his old self, he gets hurt once again. I wonder how much he has left in the tank. Injuries have really derailed what could have been one of the best careers ever for a running back. It will be interesting to see where he falls in fantasy drafts next season. He might just end up on my do-not-draft list.

Jameis Winston had one of the craziest games last week. He threw for nearly 500 yards and four touchdowns but had two interceptions returned for touchdowns, leading to his team’s loss. I still think he is a legit NFL starter, though. Winston is a playmaker and deserves another shot next season to be a full-time starter somewhere. I wonder where this Browns team would be if he started from day one instead of Deshaun Watson, who was terrible once again.

I’m going to closely watch the Rams running back situation the rest of the season. Blake Corum opened the game with the starters while Kyren Williams didn’t get into the game until the tenth play. Williams has struggled with fumbles all year, so the coaching staff is likely sending him a message. Coach Sean McVay isn’t afraid to shake up a backfield, so I’m anxious to see how this plays out. Corum looked pretty good with his chances last week.

News and Notes: The Rams claimed cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. off waivers on Monday. The former first-round pick was just released by the Commanders. . . . .The Broncos released receiver Josh Reynolds on Tuesday. . . . .San Francisco claimed running back Israel Abanikanda off waivers from the Jets on Tuesday and also signed running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn to their practice squad. The 49ers are reloading at running back after injuries to their top two backs.

HOT PLAYS

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings. Darnold has been pretty solid all season as the starter for the Vikings. He might be up and down for his team but the fantasy numbers look good. He has multiple touchdowns three straight games and five of six. Darnold has 20-plus fantasy points five of those six games. You can’t ask for much more from him. He can keep it up this week against the Falcons. Atlanta allows the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 22nd against the pass.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals. Brown continues to produce at a big clip for fantasy teams. He has 19-plus fantasy points four straight games. He has 90-plus total yards all four of those games. Brown also is finding the end zone quite often, scoring four of five games. Look for another big game this week against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed 140-plus rushing yards three of four games. The Cowboys allow the eighth most fantasy points to running backs.

Drake London, WR, Falcons. London was targeted a season-high 16 times last week. He has been targeted 36 times his last three games. Kirk Cousins is looking his way early and often. London has at least 17 fantasy points seven of 12 games this season. His numbers have been very consistent and prolific much of the season. You have to like him to rack up the looks once again this week against the Vikings. Minnesota struggles against the pass, allowing the most fantasy points to receivers this season.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Meyers is another receiver racking up the looks since taking over as the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders. He has at least 11 targets three of four games. Meyers has 15-plus fantasy points four or five games. He has become a must start for fantasy owners. The numbers don’t lie for Meyers. He is setup for another big showing in Week 14, playing the Bucs. Tampa is 12th against the run compared to 30th overall against the pass. The Bucs allow the sixth most fantasy points to receivers.

David Njoku, TE, Browns. Njoku was targeted a season-high 17 times last week and had nine receptions for 52 yards and two touchdowns. He scored a season-high 26.2 fantasy points. He has nine receptions two of his last three games. Njoku has at least five receptions six of seven games. He really is a much start for fantasy teams. Look for Njoku to have another good game this week against the Steelers, a team that was involved in a shootout last week. Plus, the Browns can’t run the ball right now, leading to a lot of pass attempts for the offense. This is another positive for Njoku.

COLD PLAYS

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Stafford had multiple scores last week for the third straight game but threw for just 183 yards. He failed to reach 18 fantasy points. He has fewer than 18 points two of four games. Stafford continues to be a little up and down for his fantasy owners. He isn’t a sure thing even with all his weapons back at receiver. Stafford could have another down game in Week 14 against the Bills. Buffalo allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and allowed fewer than 200-passing yards two straight games.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard played the most snaps of any Panthers back once again last week but rookie Jonathan Brooks played a season-high 21 percent of the snaps. Brooks could be getting more chances going forward, especially with Hubbard having some ball security issues. Hubbard had a game to forget last week, scoring just 3.3 fantasy points while losing a fumble in overtime that led to the game-winning score for the Bucs. Hubbard is a bit of a scary play this week because of all that. Plus, he gets the Eagles, a team that has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards six of seven games. Philadelphia allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets. Wilson failed to reach double-digit fantasy points for the third straight game last week. He was targeted 10 times but had five catches for just 41 yards. The entire Jets offense is a miss, making Wilson no longer a sure thing for fantasy owners. It would not surprise to see him struggle again this week against a very good Dolphins secondary. Miami allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks ninth overall against the pass.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy has been an erratic play for fantasy owners. He is capable of the big game any given week in this offense, but is a bit of a touchdown-dependent play. Worthy has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of five games. He has yet to top 75-receiving yards in a single game this year. Look for one of his down games this week against a good Chargers secondary. Los Angeles allows the 11th fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks 10th overall against the pass.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers. Kraft got back to his big ways last week, catching six passes for 78 yards on seven targets. He is another player that has been up and down throughout the season, though. Kraft has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of four games, including a game against the team he is playing this week. Kraft had four receptions for 34 yards against the Lions in Week 9. Detroit has done well in stopping the tight end, allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

SLEEPERS

Will Levis, QB, Titans. Levis has taken some real steps forward since his return to the starting lineup in Week 10. He has multiple touchdowns three of four games and 275-plus passing yards two of those games. Levis also has at least 18 fantasy points all four of those games. Levis is doing a better job of protecting the ball and completing passes. He can get multiple touchdowns again this week against the Jaguars, making him a good spot play. Jacksonville allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season.

Blake Corum, RB, Rams. Corum played a season-high 32 percent of the snaps last week. The ball security issues of Kyren Williams are becoming a concern for the Rams. We look for Corum to be getting more work going forward. His fantasy value is rising. Corum ran well with his chances in Week 13, rushing eight times for 42 yards. Both were season highs for him. If he gets double-digit touches against the Bills this week, Corum can do some damage. Buffalo has allowed 120-plus rushing yards three of four games.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Falcons. McCloud had a season-high 95 yards last week. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He gets overlooked a little in the Falcons offense but is getting a lot of work. He has played at least 88 percent of the snaps all but two games. He can help fantasy teams as a spot starter in an offense that likes to air it out. And playing McCloud this week against the Vikings might be a good time to use him. As mentioned earlier, Minnesota really struggles to stop the pass. The Vikings are first against the run compared to 28th overall against the pass.

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders. Tucker had just a catch last week but it was a 58-yard touchdown. He also ran once for 11 yards, giving him 69 total yards in the game. Tucker has 13-plus fantasy points each of his last two games. Tucker played the most snaps of any Raiders receiver last week, playing 97 percent of the snaps. He is getting a ton of playing time and producing. He is a good spot starter this week against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed 260-plus passing yards five of six games.

Dawson Knox, TE, Bills. Knox has not been off the charts in recent weeks, getting a chance to start with Dalton Kincaid out, but he has been decent. He has 40 or more yards three straight games and multiple catches all three of those games. With six teams on a bye this week, Knox is worth a shot as a spot starter at tight end. Knox gets the Rams, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/Lions, Falcons/Vikings, Raiders/Bucs, Seahawks/Cardinals, Bills/Rams, Bengals/Cowboys.

Low Scoring Games: Jaguars/Titans, Saints/Giants.

Byes: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 14

The Paur Report