Greene is worth using this week

Week 24 coincides with the start of September. As teams prepare for a playoff push, fantasy managers are looking to make a run at a championship. Let’s look at some of the two-start pitching options for the week and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy value.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds: vs. TOR, vs. NYM

Greene has made three starts since returning from the IL. Over 17 1/3 innings, he has allowed six runs (three earned) and recorded 21 strikeouts. Although injuries have limited him to just 77 innings this year, he has a 2.81 ERA that is backed by a 2.85 xERA. A big plus for him is that he has lowered his walk rate to 5.2%, compared to his career walk rate of 8.7%.

What makes Greene so valuable in fantasy is his ability to miss bats. He has a 30.8% strikeout rate this season and a 29.8% mark for his career. The Blue Jays and Mets are not easy matchups, considering both teams rank inside the top-10 in baseball in both runs scored and OPS. However, with his strikeout upside, continue to start Greene with confidence.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals: vs. ATH, vs. SF

Gray was sharp in his last outing, holding the Pirates to two runs (one earned) and recording seven strikeouts over seven innings. After a rough patch, Gray has logged at least seven innings and allowed one earned run in three of his last five starts. His ERA sits at 4.19 for the season, but his 3.73 xERA indicates he could see his ERA improve a bit down the stretch. Gray has not finished with an ERA above 4.00 since 2021.

Facing the Athletics in St. Louis is not a bad matchup for Gray’s first start of Week 24. They have a .771 OPS at home, but just a .735 OPS on the road. They have also struck out the eighth-most times in baseball. The Giants have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball, so they aren’t exactly a scary matchup, either. A few ugly stat lines in the second half by Gray might make his fantasy managers a bit nervous, but these are two favorable matchups that could help him improve his ratios.

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox: vs. CLE, at ARI

Bello has been providing the Red Sox with quality length as they push for a playoff spot. He has logged at least six innings in eight of his last 10 starts. During that span, he has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. After finishing with an ERA of at least 4.24 in each of his first three seasons in the majors, Bello has a 2.99 ERA this year. While that’s encouraging, there are some red flags. His xERA is 4.25. His strikeout rate is just 18.4%, which is down from 21.8% last season.

Regression might be coming for Bello, but his first start of the week against the Guardians is a favorable matchup. They have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball and have the second-worst OPS. However, the Diamondbacks are a scarier opponent, especially in Arizona, where they have a .787 OPS. His lack of strikeout upside doesn’t make Bello a must-start in 10-team leagues, but his start against the Guardians alone still likely makes him worth deploying in 12-team and deeper formats.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. TEX, vs. BOS

Nelson faced the red-hot Brewers in his last start and allowed only one run across six innings. It marked the third straight outing in which Nelson has logged at least six innings, with two of them being quality starts. He is in the midst of the best season of his career, posting a 3.53 ERA and a 3.94 xERA. While he’s still not missing a ton of bats with his 21.5% strikeout rate, he has lowered his WHIP from 1.25 last year to 1.06 this season.

Nelson’s first start of Week 24 is a great matchup against the Rangers, who have the seventh-worst OPS in baseball. Their lineup is even worse now that Corey Seager (abdomen) has landed on the IL. The Red Sox are certainly a more dangerous opponent, but they do have a lower OPS on the road (.730) than they do at home (.770). They have also struck out the fourth-most times in baseball. There’s no reason to think about benching Nelson for his two-start week.

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins: vs. CWS, at KC

It has been a disappointing season for Ober, who has a 5.14 ERA after posting three straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00. His 4.58 xERA isn’t much better. He has given up 2.0 HR/9, while also seeing his strikeout rate plummet to 18.7%. His lack of strikeouts is shocking, given that he had a strikeout rate of at least 25.3% in each of the last two seasons.

As disappointing as Ober has been, those desperate for a streaming option might want to take a chance on him based on these two matchups. The White Sox have scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball, and when Ober faced them earlier in the season, he allowed one run and had six strikeouts over six innings. The Royals have been even worse, scoring the fourth-fewest runs in baseball. Across three starts against them this season, Ober has allowed a total of three runs in 18 2/3 innings.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.