Scherzer worth a look Week 15

There will be no shortage of star power among the projected two-start pitchers for Week 15. However, with some of those stars struggling, it might not be a slam dunk decision to start them in fantasy. Let’s highlight five pitchers projected to start two times each and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy returns.

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners: vs. KC, vs. PIT

Kirby didn’t make his first start until May 22 because of injury. When he did return, he was shaky, allowing 11 runs over his first two starts. However, he has settled down since then. Over his last five starts, he has given up two or fewer runs four times. In his last outing, he allowed just one run across six innings versus the Twins.

Kirby has a career 3.56 ERA and 3.54 xFIP, so it was only a matter of time before he turned things around. He should be able to build on his recent success with two great matchups on the horizon for Week 15. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in baseball. The Pirates have scored the second-fewest runs and struck out the fourth-most times. Start Kirby with confidence.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. SF, vs. KC

Gallen had a great matchup against the White Sox in his last outing, but he gave up five runs over 5 1/3 innings. He now has a 5.75 ERA and 4.39 xFIP for the season. Both of those are on pace to be the highest marks of his career. Gallen has a couple of reasons for his underwhelming campaign. His strikeout rate has dropped to 20.8%, which is more than five percentage points lower than his career mark. He has also allowed a 12.7% barrel rate, which is up from his career mark of 8.3%. That has contributed to him allowing 1.8 HR/9.

The good news for Gallen for Week 15 is that his propensity for giving up home runs might not be an issue based on his two matchups. The Royals have hit the second-fewest home runs in baseball, while the Giants have hit the eighth-fewest. His reduced strikeouts limit his upside, but Gallen is a viable starting option in most formats with these two matchups.

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. NYY, vs. LAA

Scherzer landed on the IL after his first start of the season with a thumb injury. He made his return Wednesday, allowing three runs over five innings against the Guardians. He threw 83 pitches, so he should be able to reach at least hit 90 pitches in his next outing. A negative from the outing is that he allowed six hits and three walks, while recording a modest four strikeouts.

Scherzer is still a big name, but he’s nowhere near the pitcher that he was in his prime. Two tricky matchups await him for Week 15. The Yankees and Angels both rank inside the top-four in baseball in home runs. However, the Yankees offense has struggled lately. The Angels have struck out the second-most times in baseball, while the Yankees have struck out the fifth-most times. There is plenty of risk that comes with rolling with Scherzer in fantasy this week, but his strikeout upside makes him worth taking a chance on.

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins: vs. MIN, vs. MIL

Cabrera rarely pitches deep into games. He has thrown at least 90 pitches in just three of his 13 starts. He has pitched at least six innings just one time. However, he has given up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine outings. He has also logged at least five strikeouts in each of his last seven starts.

Cabrera will make both of his Week 15 starts at home. He has a 1.30 career WHIP at home, compared to a 1.40 WHIP on the road. The Twins are not a scary matchup, but the Brewers have scored the ninth-most runs in baseball. The matchup against the Brewers might be a reason for fantasy managers in shallow formats to pause when it comes to starting Cabrera this week, but he’s a viable option in 12-team and deeper formats.

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals: at SEA, at ARI

Wacha was a solid addition for the Royals last season, finishing with a 3.35 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP. He has provided nearly identical production this season with a 3.33 ERA and 4.21 xFIP through 16 starts. While he can help fantasy managers with his ratios, his strikeout rate is underwhelming at 19.2%. That’s mostly in line with his career strikeout rate of 20.9%.

Since Wacha doesn’t have much strikeout upside, he’s a matchup-dependent fantasy option. The Mariners have scored the 12th-most runs in baseball, while the Diamondbacks have scored the third-most runs. The Diamondbacks have the second-highest OPS in baseball versus right-handed pitchers, while the Mariners are tied for the 10th-highest OPS against them. This might be a good week to bench Wacha in fantasy.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.