Pitching Primer: Week 13

Sun Jun 15 10:24pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

There is a bevy of pitchers scheduled to make two starts each during Week 13. However, there aren’t a lot of big names among them, making for some interesting decisions in fantasy baseball. Let’s highlight five pitchers who are scheduled to start two games each next week and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy value.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers: vs. PIT, at TB

Mize is one of the big reasons why the Tigers are off to such a hot start. He has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 11 starts. After posting a 1.47 WHIP last season, he has a 1.28 WHIP this year. Although his strikeout rate of 21.4% isn’t exactly anything to write home about, it is higher than his career mark of 18.7%. If there is a cause for concern, it’s that he has a 4.01 xFIP. Last season, he finished with a 4.04 xFIP and a 4.49 ERA.

Mize will begin Week 13 with a great matchup against the Pirates, who have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball and have recorded the fifth-most strikeouts. The Rays are a more difficult matchup, especially in their hitter-friendly home park. Still, Mize’s matchup against the Pirates alone leaves him with plenty of fantasy upside.

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. ARI, vs. CWS

Bassitt recorded a 4.16 ERA last season, which was the highest mark of his career in any season in which he made at least 10 starts. His 4.28 xFIP also indicated that his inflated ERA was legitimate. One of the top reasons for his struggles was his 1.46 WHIP. He has made some improvements in that area this season, but his WHIP is still too high at 1.31. That has contributed to him allowing at least four runs in six of his 14 starts.

Bassitt’s second start of the week is a great matchup against the White Sox, who have scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball. However, he might have problems getting to that matchup unscathed considering his first start of the week will come against the Diamondbacks. They have scored the fourth-most runs and they have the third-highest OPS in baseball. Considering the damage that could be done to Bassitt’s ratios in that first start against the Diamondbacks, benching him this week in fantasy might be the correct move.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins: vs. PHI, vs. ATL

Is Sandy Alcantara finally turning things around? He threw six shutout innings in his last start and he allowed just two runs over six innings in his start before that. As encouraging as those two stat lines were, consider the opponents. He faced the Rockies in Miami and he also started against the Pirates. Those are two of the worst lineups in baseball.

Even with his two good performances lately, Alcantara has a 7.14 ERA and 4.51 xFIP for the season. He has been wild, posting an 11.0% walk rate that has contributed to his 1.49 WHIP. A lack of control could be crushing against the Phillies and Braves, who have lineups that are loaded with power. Don’t overreact to two good starts against bad teams. Alcantara should be left out of fantasy starting lineups this week.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers: vs. KC, at PIT

Leiter was wild in his last start, walking four batters over four innings against the Twins. He gave up four runs along the way. Prior to that, he had posted a 2.20 ERA over his last five starts. He had a 1.05 WHIP during that span, mostly because he only allowed 17 hits across 28 2/3 innings. He was wild, though, with 13 walks. For the season, he has a 12.1% walk rate.

Leiter’s 4.82 xFIP indicates that he hasn’t pitched as well as his 3.88 ERA would lead people to believe. Unless he gets his walk issues under control, he will likely continue to struggle, especially since his strikeout rate is just 19.4%. However, this could still be a good week to take a chance on him in fantasy. As previously mentioned, the Pirates have struggled mightily to be productive. The Royals haven’t been much better, scoring the third-fewest runs in baseball.

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals: at CWS, vs. CIN

After getting off to such a great start this season, Liberatore has struggled lately. Over his last three starts, he has allowed 17 runs (14 earned) across 14 innings. Two of those starts came against the Royals and Rangers, who rank inside the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored. Wildness wasn’t an issue, but Liberatore allowed 23 hits during that span. Of those 23 hits, four of them were home runs.

Even with his rough patch lately, Liberatore has a 3.93 ERA and 3.60 FIP for the season. He generally doesn’t have home runs issues, allowing 1.0 HR/9 for his career. This could be a nice bounce-back spot for him against the White Sox and Reds. The Reds have a .638 OPS versus left-handed pitchers, while lefties have limited the White Sox to a .645 OPS.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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