Nola is a risky start this week

Week 9 brings a packed schedule. Not only do most teams have a pitcher scheduled to make two starts, but some teams have two pitchers that are lined up to take the mound twice each. Let’s highlight five of the projected two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy value.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros: at TB, vs. SEA

Valdez dominated the Royals in his last outing, allowing one run and recording seven strikeouts over eight innings. In his last five starts, he logged at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs four times. After posting a 1.11 WHIP last season, Valdez has remained adept at keeping hitters off base, recording a 1.14 WHIP this year.

Valdez begins Week 9 with a favorable matchup against the Rays, who have scored the eighth-fewest runs in baseball. They also have a paltry .576 OPS against left-handed pitchers. The Mariners are a more dangerous matchup, but Valdez recorded six shutout innings against them earlier this season. In that game, he had eight strikeouts. Valdez has the potential to provide a significant boost for fantasy managers this upcoming week.

Bryan Woo, Seatle Mariners: at CWS, at HOU

Woo was excellent for the Mariners last season, posting a 2.89 ERA and a 3.75 xFIP. While he only had a 21.4% strikeout rate, he showed impeccable command with a 2.8% walk rate. That helped him record a 0.90 WHIP. He is off to a similar start this season with a 2.84 ERA and 3.54 xFIP through eight starts. His WHIP is just 0.89, and as great as that is, his most encouraging stat might be his strikeout rate increasing to 25.4%.

It doesn’t get much better than a matchup against the White Sox, who have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball. They have also struck out the ninth-most times. The Astros haven’t exactly been great, either, ranking 20th in runs scored. Expect Woo to remain a reliable fantasy option in these two upcoming matchups.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: at COL, at ATH

Nola’s last start couldn’t have gone much worse. He was clobbered by the Cardinals, allowing nine runs over 3 2/3 innings. Not only did he give up 12 hits, but three of them were home runs. In just 49 2/3 innings this season, Nola has already given up 11 home runs. That’s a recipe for disaster when you combine it with his 1.51 WHIP.

Hitters have been squaring up the ball on Nola, leaving him with a 9.4% barrel rate allowed and a 43.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Both of those are on pace to be the highest marks of his career. As bad as the Rockies have been, a matchup at Coors Field is always risky. The Athletics bring plenty of power to the plate, leaving them tied for the fifth-most home runs in baseball. Nola could turn things around down the road, but for right now, the wise move might be to bench him in fantasy.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals: at SF, at MIN

Last season, Bubic made 27 appearances as a reliever, logging a total of 30 1/3 innings. He was a starter previously in his career, so the Royals gave him an opportunity to rejoin their rotation this season. The move has gone extremely well with Bubic posting a 1.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over nine starts. While his xFIP isn’t as stellar as his ERA, it’s still good at 3.41. Also helping his cause has been him giving up just three home runs over 54 1/3 innings.

The Giants are not an easy matchup with them having scored the eighth-most runs in baseball. However, they only have a .667 OPS against left-handed pitchers, compared to a .709 OPS versus righties. The Twins have also struggled against southpaws, posting a .646 OPS against them. These two matchups leave Bubic with a favorable opportunity to continue his hot start to the season.

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs: at MIA, at CIN

Brown’s numbers aren’t great out of the gate. Through 41 2/3 innings, he has a 4.75 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. However, he has been a bit unlucky. His xFIP is much better at 3.49. Opponents have a .381 batting average against him, which likely won’t hold up as the season moves along. What fantasy managers do like to see is Brown’s 26.2% strikeout rate. Also, he has lowered his barrel rate allowed from 10.9% last season to 7.4% this year.

Brown will begin Week 9 facing a Marlins team that ranks 21st in runs scored. They have also struck out the 12th-most times in baseball. The Reds have been more productive, but they have struggled to make contact, striking out the fourth-most times in baseball. Given his strikeout upside, Brown is worth taking a chance on in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.