Bibee is worth using this week

We are starting to get a decent sample size across baseball with most teams having played around 25 games. It’s still early, but we have some noteworthy trends regarding team hitting stats. Let’s discuss five projected two-start pitchers for Week 6 and what their matchups could mean for their fantasy value.

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: at PIT, at MIL

Imanaga has posted a 2.38 ERA through six starts, but his 4.69 xFIP is a bit concerning. Last season, he posted a 3.62 xFIP on his way to a 2.91 ERA. One problem has been him giving up seven home runs over 34 innings. Also, the schedule hasn’t worked in his favor. He has faced the Dodgers twice, the Padres twice and the Diamondbacks one time. All three of those teams rank inside the top-seven in baseball in OPS.

The schedule gets easier for Imanaga in Week 6. The Brewers rank 18th in OPS, while the Pirates rank 26th. The Pirates have also struck out the fifth-most times in baseball. Imanaga has the potential to provide two stellar stat lines for fantasy managers.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers: at CWS, vs. CHC

Peralta doesn’t generally pitch deep into games. He has logged more than 5 1/3 innings in just one of his six starts this year. However, he allowed two or fewer runs in five of those six games. His inability to pitch deep into games is largely because he records a lot of walks and strikeouts. Last season, he had a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate. This season, he has a 26.5% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate.

While Peralta hasn’t been providing a ton of length, he does have a career 3.74 ERA and a 30.2% strikeout rate, making him a valuable fantasy option. His first start of Week 6 is scheduled to be against the White Sox, who have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball. The Cubs are at the other end of the extreme, having scored the most runs in baseball. Facing the Cubs is scary, but with his first start coming against the White Sox, don’t even think about benching Peralta in fantasy.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: vs. MIN, at TOR

It hasn’t been a great beginning to the season for Bibee, who has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He was hammered for seven runs over four innings in a start against the Angels and he allowed six runs over 5 2/3 innings in an outing against the Orioles. However, he allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other three starts. A big problem for him is that he has allowed a 13.2% barrel rate. Last season, he gave up a 7.0% barrel rate.

Bibee has a chance to get back on track in Week 6 based on his two matchups. Both the Twins and the Blue Jays rank inside the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored. They also rank inside the bottom-10 in OPS. Bibee has given up eight home runs already this season, but that might not be an issue against the Twins and Blue Jays. The Twins have only hit 19 home runs as a team, while the Blue Jays have been even worse with just 13 home runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks: at NYM, at PHI

Last season was a lost campaign for Rodriguez. He spent a lot of time on the IL with a lat strain and then he didn’t pitch well when he was able to take the mound. Over 10 starts, he had a 5.04 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. However, his xFIP was a bit more encouraging at 4.24. While he has a 4.40 ERA through five starts this season, his xFIP is once again better at 2.84. Arguably his most encouraging stat in the early going is that he has allowed a 4.9% barrel rate, compared to his 10.8% barrel rate allowed last season. For his career, he has given up a 6.6% barrel rate.

Rodriguez could see his ERA improve if he continues to avoid barrels, but his two matchups in Week 6 make it difficult to feel good about deploying him in fantasy. The Phillies are tied for the eighth-highest OPS in baseball and the Mets have one of the most dangerous lineups in the National League with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso in the fold. Two ugly stat lines could be coming from Rodriguez.

Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers: at HOU, at LAA

In a difficult matchup against the Padres in his last outing, Olson logged 7 1/3 scoreless innings. He allowed just two hits and one walk, while posting seven strikeouts. He hasn’t given up a run in either of his last two starts, leaving him with a 3.29 ERA for the season that is backed by a 3.72 FIP. Last season, he finished with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.72 xFIP. His strength is keeping hitters in the ballpark. For his career, he has allowed only 0.8 HR/9.

While two road starts await Olson in Week 6, they aren’t imposing matchups. The Astros rank 24th in OPS and 23rd in runs scored. The Angels rank 22nd in OPS and 21st in runs scored. The Angels are also tied for the seventh-most strikeouts in baseball. Olson isn’t a flashy name, but he remains a viable fantasy option heading into Week 6.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.