Bubic can be difference maker

Most teams have just one off day during Week 5, leaving a lot of pitchers lined up to make two starts. Let’s highlight five of those projected two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy baseball production.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. TB, vs. ATL

Pfaadt finished with a 4.71 ERA last season, but his 3.58 xFIP indicates that he didn’t pitch that poorly. There were a couple of other encouraging stats. After he allowed an 11.7% barrel rate and 2.1 HR/9 innings in 2023, he allowed an 8.1% barrel rate and 1.2 HR/9 last year. This season, he has a 3.04 ERA and 3.64 xFIP through four starts. In all four of those outings, he logged at least 5 2/3 innings.

Pfaadt will look to continue his hot start when he takes on the Rays, who have not hit well outside of one game in which they scored 16 runs against the Red Sox. Over their other 18 games, they have averaged just 3.8 runs. Pfaadt’s second outing will come against a Braves team that has struck out the sixth-most times and scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball. Pfaadt has the potential to provide two valuable stat lines.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals: vs. COL, vs. HOU

Moving to the bullpen last season saw Bubic produce a 32.2% strikeout rate. His previous career best was 23.5%. He moved back into a starting role this year and he has a 26.2% strikeout rate through four outings. Despite facing the Orioles and Yankees in two of his starts, Bubic has not allowed more than three runs in any of his four outings.

It doesn’t get much better than facing the Rockies on the road. They have scored the fewest runs in baseball, while also striking out the second-most times. The Astros generally do a good job of making contact but they also rank inside the bottom-10 in runs scored out of the gate. Bubic might not be a big name, but he could be a fantasy difference maker in Week 5.

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins: vs. CIN, at SEA

Meyer had home run issues last season, allowing 14 of them over 57 innings. He has been much better in that department this year, giving up three home runs over his first 24 innings. Not only did he log at least 5 2/3 innings in all four of his starts, but he came away with at least seven strikeouts in three of them. His slider has been devasting, racking up a 47.4% whiff rate. Last season, he generated a 34.3% whiff rate on that pitch.

The Mariners struck out the most times in baseball last season, while the Reds were tied for the ninth-most strikeouts. While their strikeout issues haven’t been as bad in the early going, they both rank inside the bottom-half in the league in OPS. These don’t have the makings of two lineups that can put an end to Meyer’s excellent start.

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels: vs. PIT, at MIN

Soriano moved into the starting rotation for the Angels last season, starting 20 of his 22 appearances. He performed well, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 3.82 xFIP. His strength was allowing just 0.6 HR/9. However, he had just a 20.7% strikeout rate to go along with his 9.6% walk rate. With his inability to miss bats, he’s nothing more than a viable streaming option in fantasy for when he has favorable matchups.

Matchups work in his favor in Week 5, putting him into the streaming discussion. Up first will be the Pirates, who have third-worst OPS and are tied for the fourth-most strikeouts in baseball. That will be followed by squaring off against a Twins team that has scored sixth-fewest runs. If there was ever a week to feel good about rolling with Soriano in fantasy, this is it.

Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres: at DET, vs. TB

There isn’t much margin for error with Vasquez, who has a 15.1% strikeout rate for his career. Last season, that contributed to him finishing with a 4.87 ERA that was backed by a 4.90 xFIP. As underwhelming as he was last season, Vasquez has given up one or no runs in three of his four starts this year.

While Vasquez has a 1.74 ERA this year, don’t get excited about him as a fantasy option. His xFIP of 6.28 paints an entirely different picture with regards to his performance. He’s also not missing more bats with his strikeout rate checking in at a paltry 9.3%. Even his barrel rate allowed of 9.4% is on pace to be the highest mark of his career. It is a bit of luck that has helped Vasquez allow just a .219 BABIP. Last season, he allowed a .330 BABIP. The matchups between the Tigers and Rays aren’t daunting, but with his staggeringly low strikeout upside, Vasquez still probably isn’t worth starting in most fantasy leagues. He’s probably just an option in 15-team and deeper formats.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.