Lineup Prep: Week 18

Wed Jan 1 10:18pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Darnold is playing great football

Instead of giving my usual random thoughts for the week, I thought it would be a lot more helpful to talk about playoff scenarios. There are not many leagues still playing Week 18 but some do for whatever reason. And it isn’t easy to navigate this last week. But we are here to help. Below is a look at all the playoff scenarios for both conferences. This should help figure out fantasy lineups for Week 18. There are going to be a lot of teams resting players this week.

The Chiefs are the No. 1 overall season for the AFC and have nothing to play for this week. They are going to rest many of their starters and have already named Carson Wentz the starting quarterback for this week. It will be hard to trust any of the usual fantasy players on the team.

Buffalo is similar to the Chiefs and is playing for nothing, having the No. 2 seed. The Bills have already said they will play a mix of starters and subs for this game. So it will once again be hard to play any of the Bills usual starters in your fantasy lineups this week.

The Ravens have clinched a playoff spot but are playing for the division title. This is an important game for the Ravens. If they win, they get to host a playoff game. If they lose, they have to go on the rod and play the Texans on wild-card weekend. I would expect the Ravens to go with their regulars and try to win this game.

Houston is like two other AFC teams and playing for nothing this week. They have won their division and are the No. 4 seed. They can’t move up or down based on what happens this weekend. The Texans might use their starters some this week after a terrible showing last week, but we would not expect them to play very long. It will be a risk to use any Texans in your lineup.

Pittsburgh is in the playoffs but has a chance to move up and win the division. The Steelers need to win against the Bengals and have the Ravens lose their game to the Browns to win the AFC North. We would expect the Steelers to go all out to win this game, meaning the starters should play.

The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will either be the No. 5 or 6 seed. And with either the five or six seed, Los Angeles will have to play a road game in their playoff opener. So this game doesn’t mean a whole lot to the Chargers. It is looking like they will rest many of their key players in this one. We would proceed with caution if you want to use any of these players in your fantasy lineup.

The Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are all looking for that last playoff spot in the AFC. There is only one spot up for grabs with these three teams in the mix. They will do all they can to win and earn that playoff spot.

Over in the NFC, the top seed is still not set. The Lions and Vikings play each other for the right to be the No. 1 overall seed. This is a huge game that will have both teams using all their starters for the game. The team that loses moves all the way down to the No. 5 seed.

The Eagles are the No. 2 seed and set in that spot. They can’t move up or down. Philadelphia has already stated they are going to be resting starters in their game. So that means Saquon Barkley likely isn’t going to get his chance to break the single-season rushing record. It is a risk to use any Eagles starters in Week 18.

The Rams are in the playoffs but not quite set in their seeding. They will be the No. 3 seed with a win or a Bucs loss. And the Rams could fall to the No. 4 seed if they lose and the Bucs win their game. Los Angeles does have some stuff on the line this week, but are leaning towards resting their starters. It doesn’t seem being the three or four seed is as important as being healthy for their playoff opener. Unless something changes, using any Rams starter in your fantasy lineup is a big risk.

Washington is another team that has clinched a playoff spot. The Commanders are going to be either the No. 6 or 7 seed. While it isn’t a huge difference to be the sixth or seventh seed, it is looking like the Commanders are going to play their starters this week. Washington would rather be the higher seed and is looking to win this last game.

The Packers are in the exact same boat as Washington. Green Bay will either be the No. 6 or 7 seed. But with the team struggling their last game, the Packers have already decided to play their starters this week. Green Bay doesn’t want to end their regular season on a down note and will go all-in to win Week 18.

The Bucs and Falcons are looking to secure that last playoff spot. Both teams need wins this last week. They will not be resting starters and going with their usual top players to win their games. You can play their players with confidence.

News and Notes: The Cowboys released running back Ezekiel Elliott on Tuesday. He apparently asked for his release, hoping to possibly catch on with a playoff team.

HOT PLAYS

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings. Darnold is up to sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has two straight three-touchdown games and reached that mark three of four games. He has 300-yard games three of six games. He is playing as well as any fantasy quarterback in the game right now. Darnold is setup for another big showing this week against a reeling Lions pass defense. Detroit is all beat up with injuries in the secondary and has allowed at least 323-passing yards three straight games. Detroit allows the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs. Irving didn’t find the end zone last week but had 190 total yards on 24 touches. He has 100-yard rushing games two of three and three of five games. Irving has emerged as one of the top fantasy backs in the game his rookie season. He is setup for a strong game in the finally, playing a Saints team he scored 18.5 fantasy points against in Week 6. The Saints allow the seventh most fantasy points to running backs and are 30th overall against the run, allowing 139.1-rushing yards per game.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin had his worst game of the season last week, catching just a pass for five yards on seven targets. It was a game to forget for him, but we look for the Commanders to make it a point to get the ball to him early and often in Week 17. He gets a Cowboys team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to receivers and allowed 267-passing yards to the Commanders in Week 12. McLaurin had five receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown in that Week 12 game against the Cowboys.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns. Jeudy remains one of the few bright spots for the Browns. He is 11th overall in fantasy receiver scoring and has double-digit receptions two of three games. He was targeted a season-high 18 times last week. You could see the Browns getting behind in their game this week against the Ravens, having to throw often. And Baltimore struggles against the pass, allowing the third most fantasy points to receivers. Jeudy is a must start in this one.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers. Freiermuth didn’t score a touchdown last week but had double-digit fantasy points for the fourth time in five games. He had seven receptions for 60 yards on eight targets. He has really become a dependable fantasy tight end down the home stretch of the fantasy season. Look for another solid game this week against the Bengals, a team that allows the most fantasy points to tight ends. Freiermuth had six receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 13.

COLD PLAYS

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets. The Rodgers signing in New York continues to look like a disaster for the Jets. He started to show some signs of fantasy life a few weeks back but has struggled once again the last two games. He has fewer than 17 fantasy points two straight. And he had his worst game of the season last week, scoring just 3.6 fantasy points. We don’t see it getting any better for Rodgers the last game of the season against the Dolphins. Miami allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Jerome Ford, RB, Browns. Ford ran six times for just 22 yards last week and suffered an ankle injury in the game. He was cleared to return but the Browns didn’t use him. This is a concern for Ford. You just don’t know how much he will be used the last week of the season. Plus, Ford gets a really tough matchup against a good Ravens run defense. Baltimore allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranks first overall against the run.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Cardinals. Harrison finally got some looks like week, having 10 targets, his third-highest total of the season. He had six receptions for 96 yards. It was encouraging to see Harrison more involved in the passing game. We just still have a hard time trusting him. Harrison has fewer than 50 yards three of four games. Plus, he plays the 49ers, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. McConkey had a huge game last week, catching eight passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. He was great once again for the Chargers. The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, though, and don’t have much on the line this week. McConkey has been beat up in recent weeks, so it would not surprise to see them limit his playing time this last week. McConkey also gets a Raiders team that is good against the pass, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans. There was thought that Schultz would be a lot more involved in the offense with Tank Dell out. That really hasn’t been the case, though. He has fewer than 25 yards two of three and hasn’t topped 50 yards in any three of those games. Schultz is a tough player to trust for fantasy teams. And he gets a tough matchup to end his season, playing a Titans team that is good at stopping the tight end. Tennessee allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends.

SLEEPERS

Joe Flacco, QB, Colts. Flacco is likely to get another start the last week of the season for the Colts. He scored 21.6 fantasy points last week, throwing for 330 yards and two touchdowns. He has two games with 20-plus fantasy points this season. He also has 270-plus passing yards three times this season. He is always capable of the big game, so he has some value against the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and is dead last against the pass. Flacco had his best game of the season against the Jaguars in Week 5, scoring 31.15 fantasy points.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Patriots. The Patriots are sending a message to Rhamondre Stevenson, concerned about his fumbling issues. Gibson played more snaps than Stevenson for the first time all season last week, playing 55 percent of the time compared to 45 percent for Steveson. Gibson has double-digit carries two straight games and has some real potential this week in an expanded role against the Bills. Buffalo allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman is a little bit of a touchdown-dependent player but is finding the end zone fairly regularly of late. He has scores two of three games. He is always a threat to make a big play in this offense. Bateman is worth a look in Week 17, especially with some fantasy teams looking for options because of players getting rested. Plus, the Browns allow the sixth most fantasy points to receivers.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons. Pitts has been a disappointment once again this season. He did score a touchdown last week, though, and has four receptions two of three games. He remains capable of the big game because of his skill set. He gets the Panthers this week, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. Carolina allows the second most fantasy points to tight ends. And in Week 6 against the Panthers, Pitts had three receptions for 70 yards on five targets.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles. It looks like the Eagles are going to rest their starters this week. Saquon Barkley might play a few snaps but not likely enough to break the rushing record, giving Gainwell more chances. You could also see the Eagles getting up big in this game, leading to Gainwell getting more running plays late. And if that happens, Gainwell can post some good numbers against a Giants team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Ravens/Steelers, Panthers/Falcons, Jaguars/Colts, Commanders/Cowboys, 49ers/Cardinals, Vikings/Lions.

Low Scoring Games: Bills/Patriots, Texans/Titans, Chargers/Raiders, Dolphins/Jets.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 18

The Paur Report